Matsuyama: Rei Sakamoto vs Kasidit Samrej
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rei Sakamoto (80%) · Rei Sakamoto at 87¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Rei Sakamoto
5
Rei Sakamoto 80%
$182.29
-$0.07
86.3¢ → 86.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralRei Sakamoto at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Rei Sakamoto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Rei Sakamotoavg 86.6¢ | $93.59 | $93.5 | -$0.09 | — |
SU suntori<$100 | Rei Sakamotoavg 86.1¢ | $93.32 | $71.76 | +$0.08 | — |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Rei Sakamotoavg 85¢ | $7.08 | $7.17 | +$0.09 | 51% 1945-1901 (3846) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Kasidit Samrejavg 14¢ | $5.74 | $5.54 | -$0.21 | 49% 698-741 (1439) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Rei Sakamotoavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.3 | +$0.05 | 39% 407-633 (1040) |
Invested
$93.59
Value
$93.5
PnL
-$0.09
Record
—
Invested
$93.32
Value
$71.76
PnL
+$0.08
Record
—
Invested
$7.08
Value
$7.17
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
1945-1901 (3846)
Invested
$5.74
Value
$5.54
PnL
-$0.21
Record
49%
698-741 (1439)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
39%
407-633 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.