Monastir: Toufik Sahtali vs Nikolai Barsukov

6 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Nikolai Barsukov (32%) · Nikolai Barsukov at 91¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 16

Toufik Sahtali10¢Nikolai Barsukov90¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikolai Barsukov

Consensus Traders

Nikolai Barsukov 32%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.5K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 90.5¢

+87% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikolai Barsukov at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolai Barsukov

6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Toufik Sahtali10%

Nikolai Barsukov91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikolai Barsukov6 traders

Total Value$49.2K

Total Shares78,158

Combined PnL+$10.2K

Toufik Sahtali13 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares37,205

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Nikolai Barsukov — 32%Toufik Sahtali — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Nikolai Barsukovavg 47.1¢	$33.7K	$43.3K	+$9.6K	47% 126-143 (269)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 58¢	$4.4K	$3.1K	$-1.3K	47% 6394-7108 (13502)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nikolai Barsukovavg 58.3¢	$2.0K	$3.0K	+$1.1K	50% 24138-24257 (48395)
38 38791873984189	Nikolai Barsukovavg 69.6¢	$6.8K	$2.2K	-$432.59	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 30.8¢	$4.2K	$1.7K	$-2.5K	47% 2286-2587 (4873)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 50.1¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	$-1.6K	45% 2723-3293 (6016)
VE VenusianCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 42¢	$1.3K	$692.81	-$581.6	45% 2804-3415 (6219)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Nikolai Barsukovavg 77.6¢	$4.4K	$670.61	$-1.9K	58% 233-171 (404)
└ Nikolai Barsukov leg	Nikolai Barsukovavg 77.6¢	$493.23	$521.03	+$27.81
└ Toufik Sahtali leg	Toufik Sahtaliavg 55.8¢	$464.05	$149.58	$-1.9K
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 44.6¢	$1.3K	$392.12	-$804.34	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Nikolai Barsukovavg 64¢	$327.06	$333.42	+$6.36	56% 39945-31552 (71497)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Toufik Sahtaliavg 47.4¢	$577.07	$256.34	-$320.73	46% 2839-3298 (6137)
└ Toufik Sahtali leg	Toufik Sahtaliavg 47.4¢	$537.17	$203.81	-$333.36
└ Nikolai Barsukov leg	Nikolai Barsukovavg 62.3¢	$39.9	$52.53	+$12.63
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Nikolai Barsukovavg 61.2¢	$204.09	$203.33	-$0.77	66% 673-353 (1026)
LR lryyyCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 57.7¢	$316.6	$200.39	-$116.22	48% 40324-43279 (83603)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 62.4¢	$1.3K	$190.16	$-1.1K	45% 2742-3329 (6071)
GA GaditimaCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 55¢	$275	$182.5	-$92.5	47% 8799-9988 (18787)
EU EulhunterCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 50.8¢	$221.73	$159.27	-$62.46	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
machinelearnedCTR	Toufik Sahtaliavg 52.1¢	$167.89	$122.81	-$45.08	54% 10552-8959 (19511)
FL Flaznorp	Nikolai Barsukovavg 64.4¢	$120.21	$117.51	-$2.7	52% 49624-46573 (96197)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Toufik Sahtaliavg 48.6¢	$92.87	$99.43	+$6.56	49% 3737-3961 (7698)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Toufik Sahtaliavg 56.6¢	$93.45	$61.05	-$32.4	52% 6204-5726 (11930)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Toufik Sahtaliavg 55¢	$41.25	$26.71	-$2.72	56% 9039-7126 (16165)

robustmst

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$33,741.32

Value

$43.3K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

47%

126-143 (269)

SlickRick123CTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$4,398.09

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

6394-7108 (13502)

omnibus-076daa

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$1,962.57

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

38791873984189

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$6,805.57

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$432.59

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$4,214.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

47%

2286-2587 (4873)

LightParadoxCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$3,129.13

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

45%

2723-3293 (6016)

VenusianCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$1,274.41

Value

$692.81

PnL

-$581.6

Record

45%

2804-3415 (6219)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$4,421.26

Value

$670.61

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

58%

233-171 (404)

Both legs:

Nikolai Barsukov$493.2377.6¢+$27.81

Toufik Sahtali$464.0555.8¢$-1.9K

thestingsnakeCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$1,276.54

Value

$392.12

PnL

-$804.34

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$327.06

Value

$333.42

PnL

+$6.36

Record

56%

39945-31552 (71497)

LimousinARB<$100

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$577.07

Value

$256.34

PnL

-$320.73

Record

46%

2839-3298 (6137)

Both legs:

Toufik Sahtali$537.1747.4¢-$333.36

Nikolai Barsukov$39.962.3¢+$12.63

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$204.09

Value

$203.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

66%

673-353 (1026)

lryyyCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$316.6

Value

$200.39

PnL

-$116.22

Record

48%

40324-43279 (83603)

MadridTimeCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$1,250.05

Value

$190.16

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

45%

2742-3329 (6071)

GaditimaCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$275

Value

$182.5

PnL

-$92.5

Record

47%

8799-9988 (18787)

EulhunterCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$221.73

Value

$159.27

PnL

-$62.46

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

machinelearnedCTR

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$167.89

Value

$122.81

PnL

-$45.08

Record

54%

10552-8959 (19511)

Flaznorp

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$120.21

Value

$117.51

PnL

-$2.7

Record

52%

49624-46573 (96197)

efntrickCTR<$100

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$92.87

Value

$99.43

PnL

+$6.56

Record

49%

3737-3961 (7698)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$93.45

Value

$61.05

PnL

-$32.4

Record

52%

6204-5726 (11930)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Toufik Sahtali

Invested

$41.25

Value

$26.71

PnL

-$2.72

Record

56%

9039-7126 (16165)

Research grade

NeutralNikolai Barsukov at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolai Barsukov

6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikolai Barsukov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.