Sydney: Tai Leonard Sach vs Derek Pham

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Derek Pham (62%) · Derek Pham at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Tai Leonard Sach10¢Derek Pham90¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Derek Pham

Consensus Traders

Derek Pham 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$34.41

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 90¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDerek Pham at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Derek Pham

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tai Leonard Sach10%

Derek Pham90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Derek Pham8 traders

Total Value$774.72

Total Shares972

Combined PnL+$42.45

Tai Leonard Sach5 traders

Total Value$164.91

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$8.04

Derek Pham — 62%Tai Leonard Sach — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Tai Leonard Sachavg 37.9¢	$1.1K	$625	-$20	51% 994-962 (1956)
└ Derek Pham leg	Derek Phamavg 50¢	$260	$465.4	+$397.1
└ Tai Leonard Sach leg	Tai Leonard Sachavg 37.9¢	$576.7	$159.6	-$417.1
FL Flaznorp	Derek Phamavg 88.6¢	$425.33	$431.97	+$6.64	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Tai Leonard Sachavg 47¢	$153.57	$133.96	-$19.6	45% 82-100 (182)
TH thestingsnake	Derek Phamavg 67.4¢	$104.56	$92.51	+$11.24	34% 228-440 (668)
PA Pan9X<$100	Derek Phamavg 53.9¢	$58.24	$63.72	+$5.48	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
LI Limousin<$100	Derek Phamavg 57¢	$56.97	$60.08	+$3.11	38% 1202-1984 (3186)
BA babybells<$100	Derek Phamavg 53¢	$50.44	$56.14	+$5.71	32% 231-493 (724)
PA pauleta23<$100	Derek Phamavg 70.1¢	$40	$51.67	+$11.67	42% 521-728 (1249)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Tai Leonard Sachavg 20¢	$193.04	$25.63	+$15.22	49% 573-601 (1174)
MA MadridTime<$100	Derek Phamavg 64¢	$16.17	$14.73	-$1.44	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Derek Phamavg 58.2¢	$3.85	$3.9	+$0.05	46% 568-669 (1237)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Tai Leonard Sachavg 19.8¢	$5.95	$2.25	-$3.7	45% 433-525 (958)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Tai Leonard Sachavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.05	+$0	48% 2348-2563 (4911)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Tai Leonard Sachavg 10¢	$0.96	$1.01	+$0.05	50% 2696-2676 (5372)

NotJumpARB<$100

Tai Leonard Sach

Invested

$1,101.7

Value

$625

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

Both legs:

Derek Pham$26050¢+$397.1

Tai Leonard Sach$576.737.9¢-$417.1

Flaznorp

Derek Pham

Invested

$425.33

Value

$431.97

PnL

+$6.64

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Tai Leonard Sach

Invested

$153.57

Value

$133.96

PnL

-$19.6

Record

45%

82-100 (182)

thestingsnake

Derek Pham

Invested

$104.56

Value

$92.51

PnL

+$11.24

Record

34%

228-440 (668)

Pan9X<$100

Derek Pham

Invested

$58.24

Value

$63.72

PnL

+$5.48

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

Limousin<$100

Derek Pham

Invested

$56.97

Value

$60.08

PnL

+$3.11

Record

38%

1202-1984 (3186)

babybells<$100

Derek Pham

Invested

$50.44

Value

$56.14

PnL

+$5.71

Record

32%

231-493 (724)

pauleta23<$100

Derek Pham

Invested

$40

Value

$51.67

PnL

+$11.67

Record

42%

521-728 (1249)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Tai Leonard Sach

Invested

$193.04

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$15.22

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

MadridTime<$100

Derek Pham

Invested

$16.17

Value

$14.73

PnL

-$1.44

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Derek Pham

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

568-669 (1237)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Tai Leonard Sach

Invested

$5.95

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$3.7

Record

45%

433-525 (958)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Tai Leonard Sach

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Tai Leonard Sach

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

Research grade

NeutralDerek Pham at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Derek Pham

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Derek Pham wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.