Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Alcaraz (35%) · Carlos Alcaraz at 81¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 14

Casper Ruud20¢Carlos Alcaraz80¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlos Alcaraz

Consensus Traders

Carlos Alcaraz 35%

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$51.01

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 80.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Casper Ruud20%

Carlos Alcaraz81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlos Alcaraz6 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares15,835

Combined PnL-$155.11

Casper Ruud11 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares22,797

Combined PnL+$206.12

Carlos Alcaraz — 35%Casper Ruud — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-55 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Alcaraz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Carlos Alcaraz) and the top 1000 (14 on Casper Ruud) disagree here.

whaleCasper Ruud 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpCasper Ruud 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrCasper Ruud 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedCarlos Alcaraz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Casper Ruud 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Carlos Alcarazavg 82¢	$8.9K	$8.7K	-$107.32	42% 8163-11357 (19520)
PL pltrkr111	Carlos Alcarazavg 82¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$24.39	55% 790-657 (1447)
VE VenusianCTR	Casper Ruudavg 18.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$18.96	49% 1821-1900 (3721)
SE sentrio	Carlos Alcarazavg 82¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15.44	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Casper Ruudavg 18.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.47	50% 21534-21823 (43357)
0xheavy888	Carlos Alcarazavg 81.7¢	$730.04	$723.37	-$11.13	56% 8215-6521 (14736)
HI hi774cCTR	Casper Ruudavg 17¢	$549.03	$613.62	+$80.74	46% 5313-6149 (11462)
38 38791873984189	Carlos Alcarazavg 80.6¢	$516.42	$515.81	-$0.61	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Casper Ruudavg 17¢	$314.5	$351.5	+$37	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
VeryLucky888CTR	Casper Ruudavg 17¢	$531.52	$274.73	+$45.72	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
EU Eulhunter	Carlos Alcarazavg 80¢	$160.46	$163.75	+$3.79	54% 6321-5389 (11710)
LI LimousinCTR	Casper Ruudavg 18.7¢	$125.87	$127.63	+$1.76	50% 1834-1824 (3658)
GC GC-PCTR	Casper Ruudavg 18.1¢	$102.29	$107.47	+$5.18	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Casper Ruudavg 19¢	$95	$95	+$0	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Casper Ruudavg 18.7¢	$49.28	$49.97	+$0.69	46% 8764-10458 (19222)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Casper Ruudavg 17.8¢	$8.52	$9.12	+$0.6	53% 2691-2371 (5062)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Casper Ruudavg 18¢	$0.22	$0.23	-$0.01	49% 14973-15876 (30849)

ferrariChampions2026

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$8,851.8

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$107.32

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

pltrkr111

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$24.39

Record

55%

790-657 (1447)

VenusianCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,561.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$18.96

Record

49%

1821-1900 (3721)

sentrio

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$1,265.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15.44

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,106.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.47

Record

50%

21534-21823 (43357)

0xheavy888

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$730.04

Value

$723.37

PnL

-$11.13

Record

56%

8215-6521 (14736)

hi774cCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$549.03

Value

$613.62

PnL

+$80.74

Record

46%

5313-6149 (11462)

38791873984189

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$516.42

Value

$515.81

PnL

-$0.61

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

FlaznorpCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$314.5

Value

$351.5

PnL

+$37

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

VeryLucky888CTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$531.52

Value

$274.73

PnL

+$45.72

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

Eulhunter

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$160.46

Value

$163.75

PnL

+$3.79

Record

54%

6321-5389 (11710)

LimousinCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$125.87

Value

$127.63

PnL

+$1.76

Record

50%

1834-1824 (3658)

GC-PCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$102.29

Value

$107.47

PnL

+$5.18

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

NM-PCTR<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$95

Value

$95

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$49.28

Value

$49.97

PnL

+$0.69

Record

46%

8764-10458 (19222)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$8.52

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

2691-2371 (5062)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

14973-15876 (30849)

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-55 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Alcaraz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Carlos Alcaraz) and the top 1000 (14 on Casper Ruud) disagree here.

whaleCasper Ruud 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpCasper Ruud 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrCasper Ruud 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedCarlos Alcaraz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Casper Ruud 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlos Alcaraz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.