BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Holger Rune (60%) · Holger Rune at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Holger Rune59¢Zizou Bergs41¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Holger Rune

Consensus Traders

Holger Rune 60%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$77.8

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 59¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Holger Rune59%

Zizou Bergs41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Holger Rune6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,542

Combined PnL+$65.37

Zizou Bergs4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,518

Combined PnL+$12.43

Holger Rune — 60%Zizou Bergs — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZizou Bergs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrHolger Rune 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHolger Rune 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Holger Rune 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Holger Runeavg 58.4¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$72.84	57% 909-677 (1586)
VeryLucky888CTR	Zizou Bergsavg 40¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$32.13	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Zizou Bergsavg 41.3¢	$937.85	$919.35	-$18.5	49% 586-603 (1189)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Holger Runeavg 61.2¢	$300.98	$292.62	-$8.36	45% 427-518 (945)
DA darkumbreon88	Holger Runeavg 60¢	$243.41	$241.39	-$2.03	64% 2177-1205 (3382)
FL Flaznorp	Holger Runeavg 57¢	$103.88	$61.81	+$2.6	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 44¢	$14.52	$13.37	-$1.16	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
PA Pan9X<$100	Holger Runeavg 57¢	$7.41	$7.74	+$0.33	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Holger Runeavg 57¢	$5	$5	+$0	52% 9544-8673 (18217)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 41¢	$10.27	$4.16	-$0.05	47% 2196-2511 (4707)

k56

Holger Rune

Invested

$3,808.13

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$72.84

Record

57%

909-677 (1586)

VeryLucky888CTR

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$1,283.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$32.13

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$937.85

Value

$919.35

PnL

-$18.5

Record

49%

586-603 (1189)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Holger Rune

Invested

$300.98

Value

$292.62

PnL

-$8.36

Record

45%

427-518 (945)

darkumbreon88

Holger Rune

Invested

$243.41

Value

$241.39

PnL

-$2.03

Record

64%

2177-1205 (3382)

Flaznorp

Holger Rune

Invested

$103.88

Value

$61.81

PnL

+$2.6

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$14.52

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$1.16

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

Pan9X<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$0.33

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

ameisgoat11<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9544-8673 (18217)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$10.27

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZizou Bergs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrHolger Rune 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHolger Rune 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Holger Rune 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Holger Rune wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.