Sioux Falls: Mees Rottgering vs Kaylan Bigun

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Mees Rottgering (88%) · Mees Rottgering at 89¢ · $66K held · ends Nov 4

Mees Rottgering89¢Kaylan Bigun11¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Mees Rottgering

Consensus Traders

Mees Rottgering 88%

Total Value

$65.6K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 88.5¢

+6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateMees Rottgering at 89%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mees Rottgering

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mees Rottgering89%

Kaylan Bigun12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mees Rottgering14 traders

Total Value$62.3K

Total Shares71,382

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Kaylan Bigun2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares13,050

Combined PnL+$782.41

Mees Rottgering — 88%Kaylan Bigun — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Mees Rottgering. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMees Rottgering 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpMees Rottgering 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMees Rottgering 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMees Rottgering 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mees Rottgering 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Mees Rottgeringavg 86.2¢	$41.6K	$40.8K	-$829.12	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
RN1	Mees Rottgeringavg 74.5¢	$7.9K	$9.3K	+$1.4K	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
HO HomeRunHazard	Mees Rottgeringavg 80.3¢	$7.8K	$8.2K	+$417.24	54% 16882-14151 (31033)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Kaylan Bigunavg 20¢	$2.6K	$3.4K	+$782.41	38% 478-791 (1269)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Mees Rottgeringavg 79.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$40.59	52% 13588-12429 (26017)
TH thestingsnake	Mees Rottgeringavg 83.2¢	$993.21	$867.74	-$11.89	60% 3978-2681 (6659)
1L 1lovejump	Mees Rottgeringavg 86.9¢	$1.9K	$859.93	-$54.99	53% 640-562 (1202)
BI BillBenter2026	Mees Rottgeringavg 88.1¢	$156.04	$155.38	-$0.67	58% 18437-13519 (31956)
OM omnibus-076daa	Mees Rottgeringavg 83¢	$131.22	$138.33	+$7.11	49% 18665-19093 (37758)
VeryLucky888<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 76¢	$76	$80	+$4	58% 40871-29553 (70424)
TRCM<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 78¢	$31.2	$29.6	-$1.6	55% 3919-3155 (7074)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 26¢	$24.7	$24.7	+$0	50% 3719-3693 (7412)
0xheavy888<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 77¢	$20.02	$19.37	-$0.65	56% 6927-5543 (12470)
HRTrading<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 87¢	$15.12	$15.15	+$0.03	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 75.5¢	$10	$7.55	+$0	47% 2091-2369 (4460)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Mees Rottgeringavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.43	-$0.08	36% 14908-27031 (41939)

UpTheBlues

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$41,647.33

Value

$40.8K

PnL

-$829.12

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

RN1

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$7,899.51

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

HomeRunHazard

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$7,823.04

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$417.24

Record

54%

16882-14151 (31033)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$2,585.87

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$782.41

Record

38%

478-791 (1269)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$1,643.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$40.59

Record

52%

13588-12429 (26017)

thestingsnake

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$993.21

Value

$867.74

PnL

-$11.89

Record

60%

3978-2681 (6659)

1lovejump

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$1,869.22

Value

$859.93

PnL

-$54.99

Record

53%

640-562 (1202)

BillBenter2026

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$156.04

Value

$155.38

PnL

-$0.67

Record

58%

18437-13519 (31956)

omnibus-076daa

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$131.22

Value

$138.33

PnL

+$7.11

Record

49%

18665-19093 (37758)

VeryLucky888<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$76

Value

$80

PnL

+$4

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

TRCM<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$31.2

Value

$29.6

PnL

-$1.6

Record

55%

3919-3155 (7074)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$24.7

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3719-3693 (7412)

0xheavy888<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$20.02

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

6927-5543 (12470)

HRTrading<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$15.12

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$10

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2091-2369 (4460)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Mees Rottgering

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

14908-27031 (41939)

Research grade

Research candidateMees Rottgering at 89%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mees Rottgering

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Mees Rottgering. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMees Rottgering 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpMees Rottgering 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMees Rottgering 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMees Rottgering 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mees Rottgering 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mees Rottgering wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.