Lima: Franco Roncadelli vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (50%) · Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 77¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 22

Franco Roncadelli24¢Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo76¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Consensus Traders

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

-$195.14

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

11 of 22 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Franco Roncadelli24%

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo11 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares17,753

Combined PnL+$64.84

Franco Roncadelli11 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares12,722

Combined PnL-$259.98

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 50%Franco Roncadelli — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 76.4¢	$9.1K	$9.1K	+$6.66	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 83¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$10.63	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
VeryLucky888	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 62.3¢	$926.39	$1.3K	+$362.35	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 17¢	$550	$760.29	+$210.29	19% 6-25 (31)
FL Flaznorp	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 67.7¢	$659.57	$730.68	+$71.11	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 47.6¢	$1.1K	$599.6	+$40.87	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 50.3¢	$289.85	$452.41	+$341.09
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 47.6¢	$325.83	$147.2	-$300.22
tradecraftCTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 25¢	$1.0K	$574.38	-$452.32	35% 485-917 (1402)
FL flatbarrel	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 86¢	$1.5K	$421.11	-$433.95	14% 61-390 (451)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 71¢	$398.74	$420.22	+$21.48	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 71¢	$279.15	$308.43	+$29.28
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 23¢	$119.59	$111.79	-$7.8
TRCMCTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 25¢	$593.57	$332.4	-$261.17	18% 101-461 (562)
poshposh	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 61.2¢	$121.98	$171.31	+$49.33	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 16.4¢	$196.55	$170.54	-$26.01	47% 376-418 (794)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 17.9¢	$169.22	$166.91	-$2.31	35% 277-525 (802)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 72¢	$83.95	$100.27	+$16.32
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 17.9¢	$85.27	$66.64	-$18.63
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 82.2¢	$132.58	$133.52	+$0.94	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 82.2¢	$96.57	$101	+$4.43
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 15.5¢	$36.01	$32.51	-$3.49
38 38791873984189CTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 16.5¢	$1.4K	$108.52	+$313.83	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 14¢	$92.4	$92.4	-$0	48% 643-686 (1329)
TH thestingsnake	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 70.2¢	$153.15	$85.46	-$6.73	36% 259-457 (716)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 30.7¢	$99.76	$56.54	-$43.22	41% 136-197 (333)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 14¢	$35.56	$35.71	+$0.15	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 80.8¢	$24.25	$22.95	-$1.3	33% 308-624 (932)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 83¢	$16.6	$17.2	+$0.6	83% 991-206 (1197)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 64¢	$10	$13.59	+$3.59	48% 229-253 (482)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 61¢	$6.75	$4.3	+$2.55	46% 486-574 (1060)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 17¢	$2.55	$2.1	-$0.45	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 16.3¢	$1	$0.86	-$0.14	53% 223-196 (419)

MadridTime

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$9,107.42

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$6.66

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$2,471.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$10.63

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

VeryLucky888

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$926.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$362.35

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$550

Value

$760.29

PnL

+$210.29

Record

19%

6-25 (31)

Flaznorp

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$659.57

Value

$730.68

PnL

+$71.11

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

NotJumpARB<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1,102.44

Value

$599.6

PnL

+$40.87

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$289.8550.3¢+$341.09

Franco Roncadelli$325.8347.6¢-$300.22

tradecraftCTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1,026.7

Value

$574.38

PnL

-$452.32

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

flatbarrel

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$1,530.62

Value

$421.11

PnL

-$433.95

Record

14%

61-390 (451)

LimousinARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$398.74

Value

$420.22

PnL

+$21.48

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$279.1571¢+$29.28

Franco Roncadelli$119.5923¢-$7.8

TRCMCTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$593.57

Value

$332.4

PnL

-$261.17

Record

18%

101-461 (562)

poshposh

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$121.98

Value

$171.31

PnL

+$49.33

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

thirdt1meCTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$196.55

Value

$170.54

PnL

-$26.01

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

babybellsARB<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$169.22

Value

$166.91

PnL

-$2.31

Record

35%

277-525 (802)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$83.9572¢+$16.32

Franco Roncadelli$85.2717.9¢-$18.63

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$132.58

Value

$133.52

PnL

+$0.94

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$96.5782.2¢+$4.43

Franco Roncadelli$36.0115.5¢-$3.49

38791873984189CTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1,401.33

Value

$108.52

PnL

+$313.83

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$92.4

Value

$92.4

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

thestingsnake

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$153.15

Value

$85.46

PnL

-$6.73

Record

36%

259-457 (716)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$99.76

Value

$56.54

PnL

-$43.22

Record

41%

136-197 (333)

VenusianCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$35.56

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$24.25

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$1.3

Record

33%

308-624 (932)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$16.6

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

83%

991-206 (1197)

glennyorkshire<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$10

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$3.59

Record

48%

229-253 (482)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$6.75

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$2.55

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

223-196 (419)

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

11 of 22 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.