Lima: Franco Roncadelli vs Max Alcala Gurri

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Max Alcala Gurri (63%) · Max Alcala Gurri at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Franco Roncadelli34¢Max Alcala Gurri66¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Alcala Gurri

Consensus Traders

Max Alcala Gurri 63%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$8.98

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 66.5¢

-9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Alcala Gurri at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Alcala Gurri

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Franco Roncadelli34%

Max Alcala Gurri67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Alcala Gurri10 traders

Total Value$874.26

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL+$4.15

Franco Roncadelli6 traders

Total Value$170.37

Total Shares569

Combined PnL+$4.83

Max Alcala Gurri — 63%Franco Roncadelli — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Max Alcala Gurriavg 73¢	$291.11	$293.12	+$2.01	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
VeryLucky888	Max Alcala Gurriavg 73.7¢	$198.96	$146.53	+$1.67	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Max Alcala Gurriavg 70¢	$107.68	$107.16	-$0.52	56% 4066-3175 (7241)
0xheavy888	Max Alcala Gurriavg 74¢	$100.01	$100.69	+$0.68	54% 503-422 (925)
LI Limousin<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 78¢	$81.9	$81.38	-$0.53	36% 975-1701 (2676)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 72.9¢	$78.04	$78.67	+$0.64	39% 126-195 (321)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 26¢	$61.07	$64.46	+$3.39	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 33¢	$57.75	$58.63	+$0.88	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 27¢	$37.58	$38.28	+$0.7	52% 194-178 (372)
MA MadridTime<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 75¢	$22.5	$22.65	+$0.15	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 74¢	$19.99	$20.13	+$0.14	45% 167-207 (374)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 66¢	$18.01	$18.15	+$0.14	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 69¢	$6	$5.78	-$0.22	44% 386-482 (868)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 30¢	$4.5	$4.27	-$0.23	34% 220-436 (656)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 25¢	$3.33	$3.4	+$0.07	55% 499-401 (900)
RN1CTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.33	+$0.03	55% 5402-4371 (9773)

38791873984189

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$291.11

Value

$293.12

PnL

+$2.01

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

VeryLucky888

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$198.96

Value

$146.53

PnL

+$1.67

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$107.68

Value

$107.16

PnL

-$0.52

Record

56%

4066-3175 (7241)

0xheavy888

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$100.01

Value

$100.69

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

Limousin<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$81.9

Value

$81.38

PnL

-$0.53

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

1lovejump<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$78.04

Value

$78.67

PnL

+$0.64

Record

39%

126-195 (321)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$61.07

Value

$64.46

PnL

+$3.39

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$57.75

Value

$58.63

PnL

+$0.88

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$37.58

Value

$38.28

PnL

+$0.7

Record

52%

194-178 (372)

MadridTime<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

glennyorkshire<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$19.99

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

45%

167-207 (374)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$18.01

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

44%

386-482 (868)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.23

Record

34%

220-436 (656)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

RN1CTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

Research grade

NeutralMax Alcala Gurri at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Max Alcala Gurri

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Alcala Gurri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.