Lima: Franco Roncadelli vs Francisco Comesana

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Francisco Comesana (38%) · Francisco Comesana at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Franco Roncadelli23¢Francisco Comesana77¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Francisco Comesana

Consensus Traders

Francisco Comesana 38%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$3.9

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 77.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Comesana at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Comesana

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Franco Roncadelli23%

Francisco Comesana78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francisco Comesana3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,500

Combined PnL-$36.13

Franco Roncadelli5 traders

Total Value$610.38

Total Shares2,720

Combined PnL+$40.02

Francisco Comesana — 38%Franco Roncadelli — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Comesana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFranco Roncadelli 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Franco Roncadelli 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Francisco Comesanaavg 79¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$36.59	45% 100-123 (223)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 21¢	$375.27	$402.08	+$26.81	37% 37-62 (99)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Franco Roncadelliavg 21¢	$174.54	$187	+$12.47	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
0xheavy888<$100	Francisco Comesanaavg 78¢	$42.73	$43.28	+$0.55	54% 278-237 (515)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 20.2¢	$19.17	$19.97	+$0.8	32% 538-1128 (1666)
HY hydra1248<$100	Francisco Comesanaavg 79¢	$4.75	$4.66	-$0.09	78% 125-35 (160)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 22¢	$1.16	$1.11	-$0.05	32% 534-1112 (1646)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 21¢	$0.21	$0.22	+$0.01	52% 773-714 (1487)

glennyorkshire

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$1,926.83

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$36.59

Record

45%

100-123 (223)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$375.27

Value

$402.08

PnL

+$26.81

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

FlaznorpCTR

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$174.54

Value

$187

PnL

+$12.47

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

0xheavy888<$100

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$42.73

Value

$43.28

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

VenusianCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.8

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

hydra1248<$100

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.09

Record

78%

125-35 (160)

LimousinCTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Comesana at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Comesana

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Comesana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFranco Roncadelli 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Franco Roncadelli 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francisco Comesana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.