Orleans: Jurij Rodionov vs Pedro Martinez
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jurij Rodionov (80%) · Jurij Rodionov at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Jurij Rodionov
5
Jurij Rodionov 80%
$2.3K
-$2.85
74.1¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJurij Rodionov at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Jurij Rodionov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Jurij Rodionovavg 74¢ | $776.78 | $782.03 | +$5.25 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
00 0000.CTR | Pedro Martinezavg 25.9¢ | $707 | $694.92 | -$12.08 | — 6-11 (17) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jurij Rodionovavg 74.2¢ | $615.5 | $618.35 | +$2.85 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
SE sentrio | Jurij Rodionovavg 74¢ | $172.09 | $173.26 | +$1.16 | 35% 266-489 (755) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jurij Rodionovavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.73 | -$0.02 | 26% 185-519 (704) |
Invested
$776.78
Value
$782.03
PnL
+$5.25
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$707
Value
$694.92
PnL
-$12.08
Record
—
6-11 (17)
VeryLucky888Invested
$615.5
Value
$618.35
PnL
+$2.85
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
Invested
$172.09
Value
$173.26
PnL
+$1.16
Record
35%
266-489 (755)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.73
PnL
-$0.02
Record
26%
185-519 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.