BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Rinderknech (50%) · Arthur Rinderknech at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Arthur Rinderknech66¢Miomir Kecmanovic34¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arthur Rinderknech

Consensus Traders

Arthur Rinderknech 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$1.09

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 65.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralArthur Rinderknech at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Rinderknech

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Rinderknech66%

Miomir Kecmanovic35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Rinderknech4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,600

Combined PnL-$8.75

Miomir Kecmanovic4 traders

Total Value$953.44

Total Shares1,969

Combined PnL+$9.85

Arthur Rinderknech — 50%Miomir Kecmanovic — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Rinderknech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiomir Kecmanovic 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Rinderknech 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Arthur Rinderknech 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Arthur Rinderknechavg 66¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	-$15	0% 0-99 (99)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 34¢	$608.03	$616.97	+$8.94	30% 107-247 (354)
FL Flaznorp	Arthur Rinderknechavg 65¢	$295.75	$302.68	+$6.93	52% 242-227 (469)
VeryLucky888CTR	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 33¢	$21.59	$299.25	+$0.36	48% 61-65 (126)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Arthur Rinderknechavg 66¢	$81.75	$81.13	-$0.62	2% 7-311 (318)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 34¢	$74	$25.53	+$0.37	26% 89-254 (343)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 34¢	$11.52	$11.69	+$0.17	24% 90-284 (374)
PA Pan9X<$100	Arthur Rinderknechavg 66¢	$14	$9.17	-$0.07	48% 174-190 (364)

k56

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$1,096.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15

Record

0-99 (99)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$608.03

Value

$616.97

PnL

+$8.94

Record

30%

107-247 (354)

Flaznorp

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$295.75

Value

$302.68

PnL

+$6.93

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

VeryLucky888CTR

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$21.59

Value

$299.25

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

darkumbreon88<$100

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$81.75

Value

$81.13

PnL

-$0.62

Record

7-311 (318)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$74

Value

$25.53

PnL

+$0.37

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

LimousinCTR<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$11.52

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0.17

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

Pan9X<$100

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$14

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

Research grade

NeutralArthur Rinderknech at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Rinderknech

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Rinderknech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiomir Kecmanovic 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Rinderknech 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Arthur Rinderknech 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Rinderknech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.