Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Francisco Cerundolo (67%) · Francisco Cerundolo at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Arthur Rinderknech38¢Francisco Cerundolo62¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Francisco Cerundolo

Consensus Traders

Francisco Cerundolo 67%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$71.76

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 62.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Cerundolo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Cerundolo

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Rinderknech38%

Francisco Cerundolo63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francisco Cerundolo6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL-$148.04

Arthur Rinderknech3 traders

Total Value$769.96

Total Shares2,025

Combined PnL+$76.28

Francisco Cerundolo — 67%Arthur Rinderknech — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Cerundolo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFrancisco Cerundolo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrFrancisco Cerundolo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFrancisco Cerundolo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Francisco Cerundolo 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Francisco Cerundoloavg 66.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$134.82	58% 44275-32205 (76480)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Arthur Rinderknechavg 32¢	$509.92	$575.44	+$65.52	50% 507-502 (1009)
FL Flaznorp	Francisco Cerundoloavg 66¢	$327.17	$314.77	-$12.39	51% 23065-21883 (44948)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Arthur Rinderknechavg 34.1¢	$94.66	$104.18	+$9.52	61% 13908-8919 (22827)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Arthur Rinderknechavg 36¢	$89.1	$90.34	+$1.24	54% 766-651 (1417)
38 38791873984189	Francisco Cerundoloavg 64¢	$110.5	$59.08	-$0.47	47% 14094-15610 (29704)
0xheavy888<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 63¢	$8.51	$8.58	+$0.07	56% 7546-6039 (13585)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 67¢	$6.69	$6.34	-$0.35	52% 8374-7652 (16026)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Francisco Cerundoloavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.18	-$0.08	50% 20032-20390 (40422)

VeryLucky888

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$2,031.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$134.82

Record

58%

44275-32205 (76480)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$509.92

Value

$575.44

PnL

+$65.52

Record

50%

507-502 (1009)

Flaznorp

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$327.17

Value

$314.77

PnL

-$12.39

Record

51%

23065-21883 (44948)

LilybaeumCTR

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$94.66

Value

$104.18

PnL

+$9.52

Record

61%

13908-8919 (22827)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Arthur Rinderknech

Invested

$89.1

Value

$90.34

PnL

+$1.24

Record

54%

766-651 (1417)

38791873984189

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$110.5

Value

$59.08

PnL

-$0.47

Record

47%

14094-15610 (29704)

0xheavy888<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$8.51

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

7546-6039 (13585)

ameisgoat11<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

8374-7652 (16026)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Francisco Cerundolo

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

20032-20390 (40422)

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Cerundolo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Cerundolo

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Cerundolo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFrancisco Cerundolo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrFrancisco Cerundolo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFrancisco Cerundolo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Francisco Cerundolo 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francisco Cerundolo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.