Lima: Daniel Rincon vs Santiago De La Fuente

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Rincon (45%) · Daniel Rincon at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Daniel Rincon80¢Santiago De La Fuente20¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Rincon

Consensus Traders

Daniel Rincon 45%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$2.1

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 79.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Rincon at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Rincon

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Rincon80%

Santiago De La Fuente21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Rincon5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,934

Combined PnL+$23.32

Santiago De La Fuente6 traders

Total Value$452.77

Total Shares2,716

Combined PnL-$21.22

Daniel Rincon — 45%Santiago De La Fuente — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Daniel Rinconavg 82.4¢	$911.47	$923.54	+$12.06	56% 105-81 (186)
FL Flaznorp	Daniel Rinconavg 82¢	$457.56	$465.93	+$8.37	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 17.6¢	$318.61	$298.97	-$19.64	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
38 38791873984189	Daniel Rinconavg 81¢	$162	$164	+$2	47% 781-864 (1645)
VeryLucky888CTR	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 17¢	$105.61	$102.5	-$3.11	48% 220-236 (456)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Daniel Rinconavg 77.1¢	$31.5	$32.23	+$0.73	56% 3788-2950 (6738)
RN1CTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 17¢	$29.8	$31.55	+$1.75	58% 3751-2706 (6457)
BA babybells<$100	Daniel Rinconavg 80¢	$24.8	$24.96	+$0.16	16% 70-361 (431)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 20¢	$10	$10.25	+$0.25	25% 209-625 (834)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 17¢	$6.63	$6.44	-$0.19	48% 410-447 (857)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 18¢	$3.33	$3.05	-$0.28	24% 204-649 (853)

0xheavy888

Daniel Rincon

Invested

$911.47

Value

$923.54

PnL

+$12.06

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

Flaznorp

Daniel Rincon

Invested

$457.56

Value

$465.93

PnL

+$8.37

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$318.61

Value

$298.97

PnL

-$19.64

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

38791873984189

Daniel Rincon

Invested

$162

Value

$164

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

VeryLucky888CTR

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$105.61

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$3.11

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Daniel Rincon

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.23

PnL

+$0.73

Record

56%

3788-2950 (6738)

RN1CTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$29.8

Value

$31.55

PnL

+$1.75

Record

58%

3751-2706 (6457)

babybells<$100

Daniel Rincon

Invested

$24.8

Value

$24.96

PnL

+$0.16

Record

16%

70-361 (431)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$10

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

25%

209-625 (834)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$0.19

Record

48%

410-447 (857)

LimousinCTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.28

Record

24%

204-649 (853)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Rincon at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Rincon

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Rincon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.