Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michele Ribecai, while the market favors Henry Searle (63%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Michele Ribecai vs Henry Searle

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Michele Ribecai (58%) · Michele Ribecai at 38¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Michele Ribecai38¢Henry Searle62¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michele Ribecai

Consensus Traders

Michele Ribecai 58%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$24.14

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 37.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichele Ribecai at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michele Ribecai

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Henry Searle 63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michele Ribecai38%

Henry Searle63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michele Ribecai7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,359

Combined PnL+$38.69

Henry Searle5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,271

Combined PnL-$14.54

Michele Ribecai — 58%Henry Searle — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Michele Ribecai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichele Ribecai 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichele Ribecai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michele Ribecai 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 36.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$37.38	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
Vladooos	Henry Searleavg 63¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$15.87	66% 46-24 (70)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 36.7¢	$168.56	$169.92	+$1.36	56% 444-355 (799)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Henry Searleavg 60.2¢	$43.66	$44.96	+$1.3	46% 472-558 (1030)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 36¢	$35.64	$36.63	+$0.99	48% 282-303 (585)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 37¢	$17.76	$17.76	+$0	50% 1551-1563 (3114)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 39.5¢	$12.41	$11.63	-$0.78	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Henry Searleavg 63¢	$10	$9.92	-$0.08	45% 155-189 (344)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 39¢	$3.9	$3.7	-$0.2	42% 970-1328 (2298)
38 38791873984189<$100	Henry Searleavg 62¢	$3.16	$3.21	+$0.05	48% 3155-3450 (6605)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 38¢	$2.39	$2.33	-$0.06	45% 79-97 (176)
0xheavy888<$100	Henry Searleavg 61¢	$1.8	$1.86	+$0.06	54% 479-413 (892)

VeryLucky888CTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$2,300.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$37.38

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

Vladooos

Henry Searle

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15.87

Record

66%

46-24 (70)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$168.56

Value

$169.92

PnL

+$1.36

Record

56%

444-355 (799)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$43.66

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$1.3

Record

46%

472-558 (1030)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$35.64

Value

$36.63

PnL

+$0.99

Record

48%

282-303 (585)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$17.76

Value

$17.76

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1551-1563 (3114)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$12.41

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$0.78

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

glennyorkshire<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$10

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

155-189 (344)

sentrioCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

38791873984189<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

3155-3450 (6605)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

79-97 (176)

0xheavy888<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

479-413 (892)

Research grade

NeutralMichele Ribecai at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Michele Ribecai

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Henry Searle 63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Michele Ribecai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichele Ribecai 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichele Ribecai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michele Ribecai 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michele Ribecai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.