Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Carlo Alberto Caniato, while the market favors Michele Ribecai (74%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Michele Ribecai vs Carlo Alberto Caniato

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Carlo Alberto Caniato (41%) · Carlo Alberto Caniato at 26¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 19

Michele Ribecai74¢Carlo Alberto Caniato26¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Consensus Traders

Carlo Alberto Caniato 41%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 26¢

-54% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCarlo Alberto Caniato at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlo Alberto Caniato

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Michele Ribecai 74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michele Ribecai74%

Carlo Alberto Caniato26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlo Alberto Caniato7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,962

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Michele Ribecai10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL+$175.04

Carlo Alberto Caniato — 41%Michele Ribecai — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 56.2¢	$10.9K	$10.8K	-$106.23	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 56.2¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$88.45
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 44.7¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$17.78
RN1CTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 56.2¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.1K	57% 4429-3409 (7838)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 40.5¢	$865.98	$734.93	-$131.05	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 40.5¢	$707.03	$549.5	-$157.53
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 58.7¢	$158.95	$185.43	+$26.48
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 50¢	$1.1K	$709.73	+$24.13	54% 410-348 (758)
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 50.4¢	$298.27	$393.53	+$174.41
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 50¢	$471.94	$316.2	-$150.27
PR prabamCTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 56¢	$1.1K	$530	-$590	— 9-4 (13)
TH thestingsnake	Michele Ribecaiavg 51.4¢	$546.26	$502.1	+$95.35	29% 160-392 (552)
LI Limousin	Michele Ribecaiavg 62.5¢	$263.41	$260.74	+$2.88	32% 510-1077 (1587)
0xheavy888CTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 57¢	$210.82	$212.67	+$1.85	55% 262-216 (478)
LI LightParadox	Michele Ribecaiavg 48.7¢	$153.73	$203.5	+$49.76	32% 524-1101 (1625)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 48.7¢	$669.14	$186.36	+$19.55	35% 90-166 (256)
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 54.4¢	$78.4	$98.79	+$54.93
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 48.7¢	$135.27	$87.57	-$35.38
MA MadridTime	Michele Ribecaiavg 59.7¢	$158.41	$172.87	+$14.46	33% 531-1071 (1602)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 51¢	$305.99	$157.59	-$81.41	50% 3509-3482 (6991)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 51¢	$219.84	$109.91	-$109.94
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 52.5¢	$33.62	$47.68	+$28.53
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 42¢	$34.14	$32.92	-$1.22	61% 952-605 (1557)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 30.2¢	$17.16	$21.48	+$4.32	40% 234-354 (588)
VE Venusian<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 44¢	$11.07	$17.23	+$6.16	32% 522-1096 (1618)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 43¢	$10	$17.21	+$7.21	50% 86-87 (173)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 56¢	$15.51	$15.93	+$0.42	41% 525-744 (1269)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 70.3¢	$14.05	$14.8	+$0.75	25% 173-515 (688)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 40¢	$14.64	$14.32	-$0.32	50% 129-129 (258)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 55¢	$2.74	$2.86	+$0.12	52% 718-671 (1389)
SU suntori<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 57¢	$1.42	$1.43	+$0.01	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.33	-$0.82	50% 1181-1203 (2384)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$10,936.69

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$106.23

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$7,389.0356.2¢-$88.45

Michele Ribecai$3,547.6644.7¢-$17.78

RN1CTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2,538.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

4429-3409 (7838)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$865.98

Value

$734.93

PnL

-$131.05

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$707.0340.5¢-$157.53

Michele Ribecai$158.9558.7¢+$26.48

NotJumpARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$1,078.81

Value

$709.73

PnL

+$24.13

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

Both legs:

Michele Ribecai$298.2750.4¢+$174.41

Carlo Alberto Caniato$471.9450¢-$150.27

prabamCTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$530

PnL

-$590

Record

—

9-4 (13)

thestingsnake

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$546.26

Value

$502.1

PnL

+$95.35

Record

29%

160-392 (552)

Limousin

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$263.41

Value

$260.74

PnL

+$2.88

Record

32%

510-1077 (1587)

0xheavy888CTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$210.82

Value

$212.67

PnL

+$1.85

Record

55%

262-216 (478)

LightParadox

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$153.73

Value

$203.5

PnL

+$49.76

Record

32%

524-1101 (1625)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$669.14

Value

$186.36

PnL

+$19.55

Record

35%

90-166 (256)

Both legs:

Michele Ribecai$78.454.4¢+$54.93

Carlo Alberto Caniato$135.2748.7¢-$35.38

MadridTime

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$158.41

Value

$172.87

PnL

+$14.46

Record

33%

531-1071 (1602)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$305.99

Value

$157.59

PnL

-$81.41

Record

50%

3509-3482 (6991)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$219.8451¢-$109.94

Michele Ribecai$33.6252.5¢+$28.53

darkumbreon88<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$34.14

Value

$32.92

PnL

-$1.22

Record

61%

952-605 (1557)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$17.16

Value

$21.48

PnL

+$4.32

Record

40%

234-354 (588)

Venusian<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$11.07

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$6.16

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

glennyorkshire<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$10

Value

$17.21

PnL

+$7.21

Record

50%

86-87 (173)

sentrioCTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$15.51

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$0.42

Record

41%

525-744 (1269)

BillBenter2026<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$14.05

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$0.75

Record

25%

173-515 (688)

Eulhunter<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$14.64

Value

$14.32

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

129-129 (258)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2.74

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

718-671 (1389)

suntori<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

1181-1203 (2384)

Research grade

AvoidCarlo Alberto Caniato at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Carlo Alberto Caniato

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Michele Ribecai 74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlo Alberto Caniato wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.