Hersonissos 3: Leo Raquillet vs Lorenzo Carboni

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Carboni (76%) · Lorenzo Carboni at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Leo Raquillet<1¢Lorenzo Carboni>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Carboni

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Carboni 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$349.43

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Carboni at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Carboni

13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Leo Raquillet0%

Lorenzo Carboni100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Carboni13 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,141

Combined PnL+$744.94

Leo Raquillet4 traders

Total Value$100.05

Total Shares3,090

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Lorenzo Carboni — 76%Leo Raquillet — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Lorenzo Carboniavg 80.3¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$179.7	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GA Gaditima	Lorenzo Carboniavg 65¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$389.5	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Lorenzo Carboniavg 94.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$58.53	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Leo Raquilletavg 40.1¢	$656.4	$434.53	-$221.87	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 65.5¢	$243.9	$336.8	+$92.89
└ Leo Raquillet leg	Leo Raquilletavg 40.1¢	$412.5	$97.74	-$314.77
VE Venusian	Lorenzo Carboniavg 68.9¢	$115.09	$162.22	+$47.14	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Lorenzo Carboniavg 87.1¢	$153.96	$147	-$6.96	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
TRCM<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 65¢	$78.49	$82.29	+$3.79	55% 4121-3315 (7436)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 83.8¢	$63.44	$75.66	+$12.21	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
LI LightParadox<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 79.4¢	$49.67	$62.5	+$12.83	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
machinelearned<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 62.7¢	$69.73	$61.52	-$8.22	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
RN1CTR	Leo Raquilletavg 38.4¢	$882.4	$35.1	-$847.3	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Leo Raquilletavg 25.1¢	$102.1	$26.86	-$75.24	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
LI LimousinCTR	Leo Raquilletavg 36.1¢	$201.3	$24.42	-$176.88	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0xheavy888<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 65¢	$24.44	$17.11	-$7.33	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Leo Raquilletavg 34¢	$25.3	$13.66	+$5.06	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
SC SchruteBucks	Lorenzo Carboniavg 72.3¢	$382.78	$7.4	+$65.16	56% 1967-1522 (3489)
tradecraft<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 94¢	$7.03	$5.01	-$2.02	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
MA MadridTime<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 88¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

38791873984189

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$2,847.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$179.7

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Gaditima

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,109.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$389.5

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

ferrariChampions2026

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,014.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$58.53

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Leo Raquillet

Invested

$656.4

Value

$434.53

PnL

-$221.87

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$243.965.5¢+$92.89

Leo Raquillet$412.540.1¢-$314.77

Venusian

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$115.09

Value

$162.22

PnL

+$47.14

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$153.96

Value

$147

PnL

-$6.96

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

TRCM<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$78.49

Value

$82.29

PnL

+$3.79

Record

55%

4121-3315 (7436)

Eulhunter<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$63.44

Value

$75.66

PnL

+$12.21

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

LightParadox<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$49.67

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$12.83

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

machinelearned<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$69.73

Value

$61.52

PnL

-$8.22

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

RN1CTR

Leo Raquillet

Invested

$882.4

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$847.3

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

thestingsnakeCTR

Leo Raquillet

Invested

$102.1

Value

$26.86

PnL

-$75.24

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

LimousinCTR

Leo Raquillet

Invested

$201.3

Value

$24.42

PnL

-$176.88

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xheavy888<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$24.44

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$7.33

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Leo Raquillet

Invested

$25.3

Value

$13.66

PnL

+$5.06

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

SchruteBucks

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$382.78

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$65.16

Record

56%

1967-1522 (3489)

tradecraft<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$7.03

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$2.02

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

MadridTime<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Carboni at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Carboni

13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Carboni wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.