Sydney: Ajeet Rai vs Pavle Marinkov

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Pavle Marinkov (50%) · Pavle Marinkov at 71¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 22

Ajeet Rai30¢Pavle Marinkov70¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pavle Marinkov

Consensus Traders

Pavle Marinkov 50%

Total Value

$293.02

Combined PnL

-$5.17

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPavle Marinkov at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pavle Marinkov

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ajeet Rai30%

Pavle Marinkov71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pavle Marinkov5 traders

Total Value$266.42

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$4.94

Ajeet Rai5 traders

Total Value$26.6

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$0.23

Pavle Marinkov — 50%Ajeet Rai — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Pavle Marinkov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pavle Marinkov) and the top 1000 (9 on Ajeet Rai) disagree here.

ctrPavle Marinkov 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPavle Marinkov 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ajeet Rai 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrick	Pavle Marinkovavg 71.7¢	$190.92	$186.31	-$4.61	45% 100-121 (221)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pavle Marinkovavg 71¢	$60.81	$56.51	-$1.02	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Pavle Marinkovavg 68¢	$14.66	$15.2	+$0.54	46% 568-669 (1237)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ajeet Raiavg 28.9¢	$11.2	$11.23	+$0.03	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ajeet Raiavg 28¢	$8.99	$9.31	+$0.32	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
VeryLucky888<$100	Pavle Marinkovavg 69¢	$5.93	$6.06	+$0.13	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Ajeet Raiavg 33¢	$3.35	$2.95	-$0.41	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
0xheavy888<$100	Pavle Marinkovavg 70¢	$2.33	$2.35	+$0.02	56% 580-460 (1040)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ajeet Raiavg 29¢	$1.63	$1.66	+$0.03	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Ajeet Raiavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.45	-$0.2	41% 1124-1597 (2721)

efntrick

Pavle Marinkov

Invested

$190.92

Value

$186.31

PnL

-$4.61

Record

45%

100-121 (221)

Pan9X<$100

Pavle Marinkov

Invested

$60.81

Value

$56.51

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Pavle Marinkov

Invested

$14.66

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$0.54

Record

46%

568-669 (1237)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Ajeet Rai

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ajeet Rai

Invested

$8.99

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$0.32

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

VeryLucky888<$100

Pavle Marinkov

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Ajeet Rai

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

0xheavy888<$100

Pavle Marinkov

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

580-460 (1040)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ajeet Rai

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

sentrioCTR<$100

Ajeet Rai

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

1124-1597 (2721)

Research grade

NeutralPavle Marinkov at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pavle Marinkov

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Pavle Marinkov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pavle Marinkov) and the top 1000 (9 on Ajeet Rai) disagree here.

ctrPavle Marinkov 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPavle Marinkov 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ajeet Rai 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pavle Marinkov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.