Monastir: Kasra Rahmani vs Alejandro Moro Canas

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Moro Canas (57%) · Alejandro Moro Canas at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Kasra Rahmani5¢Alejandro Moro Canas95¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alejandro Moro Canas

Consensus Traders

Alejandro Moro Canas 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$8.27

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 95.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Moro Canas at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Moro Canas

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kasra Rahmani5%

Alejandro Moro Canas96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alejandro Moro Canas8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,650

Combined PnL+$23.92

Kasra Rahmani6 traders

Total Value$219.19

Total Shares2,323

Combined PnL-$15.65

Alejandro Moro Canas — 57%Kasra Rahmani — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 91.8¢	$371.64	$386.77	+$15.12	24% 205-642 (847)
tradecraft	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 91¢	$368.33	$372.95	+$4.62	14% 95-564 (659)
MA MadridTime	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 92¢	$368	$370	+$2	25% 204-624 (828)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 92.1¢	$284.03	$283.36	-$0.67	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 92¢	$355.73	$128.19	-$10.25	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ Alejandro Moro Canas leg	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 92¢	$92.58	$96.1	+$5.52
└ Kasra Rahmani leg	Kasra Rahmaniavg 6.7¢	$47.87	$32.1	-$15.77
RN1CTR<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 18¢	$94.06	$96.67	+$2.61	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
BA babybells<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 92¢	$71.78	$71.34	-$0.44	16% 68-358 (426)
LI Limousin<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 87¢	$64.19	$67.42	+$3.23	24% 201-647 (848)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 12¢	$55.31	$45.29	-$3.41	16% 62-332 (394)
└ Kasra Rahmani leg	Kasra Rahmaniavg 12¢	$28.8	$25.2	-$4.2
└ Alejandro Moro Canas leg	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 86¢	$19.31	$20.09	+$0.79
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 18¢	$44.75	$42.86	+$0.11	48% 218-232 (450)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 6¢	$56.25	$42.11	-$14.15	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 6.1¢	$33.39	$30.13	-$3.26	35% 60-113 (173)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 82¢	$20.65	$20.65	+$0	22% 85-293 (378)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 17¢	$4.89	$5.18	+$0.29	52% 54-49 (103)
0xheavy888<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 81¢	$4.26	$4.32	+$0.05	57% 103-79 (182)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Kasra Rahmaniavg 7¢	$3.5	$2.25	-$1.25	18% 108-480 (588)

Venusian

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$371.64

Value

$386.77

PnL

+$15.12

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

tradecraft

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$368.33

Value

$372.95

PnL

+$4.62

Record

14%

95-564 (659)

MadridTime

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$368

Value

$370

PnL

+$2

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$284.03

Value

$283.36

PnL

-$0.67

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$355.73

Value

$128.19

PnL

-$10.25

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

Alejandro Moro Canas$92.5892¢+$5.52

Kasra Rahmani$47.876.7¢-$15.77

RN1CTR<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$94.06

Value

$96.67

PnL

+$2.61

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

babybells<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$71.78

Value

$71.34

PnL

-$0.44

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

Limousin<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$64.19

Value

$67.42

PnL

+$3.23

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$55.31

Value

$45.29

PnL

-$3.41

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

Both legs:

Kasra Rahmani$28.812¢-$4.2

Alejandro Moro Canas$19.3186¢+$0.79

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$44.75

Value

$42.86

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$56.25

Value

$42.11

PnL

-$14.15

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$33.39

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$3.26

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$20.65

Value

$20.65

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.29

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

0xheavy888<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

103-79 (182)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Kasra Rahmani

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

18%

108-480 (588)

Research grade

NeutralAlejandro Moro Canas at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Moro Canas

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alejandro Moro Canas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.