Lima: Juan Carlos Prado vs Ryo Tabata

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Carlos Prado (50%) · Juan Carlos Prado at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Juan Carlos Prado54¢Ryo Tabata46¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Carlos Prado

Consensus Traders

Juan Carlos Prado 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$383.87

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 53.5¢

-29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Carlos Prado at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Carlos Prado

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Carlos Prado54%

Ryo Tabata47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Carlos Prado6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,634

Combined PnL+$27.68

Ryo Tabata6 traders

Total Value$706.86

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL+$356.19

Juan Carlos Prado — 50%Ryo Tabata — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Juan Carlos Prado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRyo Tabata 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Juan Carlos Prado 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 77¢	$963.34	$988.36	+$25.02	51% 3161-3059 (6220)
0X 0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR	Ryo Tabataavg 23¢	$318.8	$672.25	+$353.45	0% 1-213 (214)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 63¢	$121.16	$122.12	+$0.96	54% 1615-1366 (2981)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 71.5¢	$53.63	$53.86	+$0.23	36% 66-116 (182)
BA babybells<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 78¢	$50.7	$51.35	+$0.65	17% 73-363 (436)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 79¢	$42.29	$43.26	+$0.96	56% 3791-2951 (6742)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 37¢	$12.51	$13.38	+$0.87	25% 210-628 (838)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 20¢	$10	$10.5	+$0.5	25% 209-639 (848)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 18¢	$5.04	$5.88	+$0.84	53% 59-52 (111)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 81¢	$4.05	$3.9	-$0.15	23% 150-497 (647)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 17¢	$3.07	$3.8	+$0.72	48% 802-884 (1686)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.05	-$0.2	50% 1393-1407 (2800)

6512395314597884

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$963.34

Value

$988.36

PnL

+$25.02

Record

51%

3161-3059 (6220)

0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$318.8

Value

$672.25

PnL

+$353.45

Record

1-213 (214)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$121.16

Value

$122.12

PnL

+$0.96

Record

54%

1615-1366 (2981)

thirdt1me<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$53.63

Value

$53.86

PnL

+$0.23

Record

36%

66-116 (182)

babybells<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$50.7

Value

$51.35

PnL

+$0.65

Record

17%

73-363 (436)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$42.29

Value

$43.26

PnL

+$0.96

Record

56%

3791-2951 (6742)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$12.51

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$0.87

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$10

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

25%

209-639 (848)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

59-52 (111)

ameisgoat11<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.15

Record

23%

150-497 (647)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.72

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Carlos Prado at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Juan Carlos Prado

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Juan Carlos Prado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRyo Tabata 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Juan Carlos Prado 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Carlos Prado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.