Costa do Sauipe: Juan Carlos Prado vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Camilo Ugo Carabelli (62%) · Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Juan Carlos Prado11¢Camilo Ugo Carabelli89¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Consensus Traders

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 62%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$37.81

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 89.5¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCamilo Ugo Carabelli at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Juan Carlos Prado11%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Camilo Ugo Carabelli8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,535

Combined PnL+$11.29

Juan Carlos Prado5 traders

Total Value$326.99

Total Shares1,213

Combined PnL+$26.52

Camilo Ugo Carabelli — 62%Juan Carlos Prado — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 88.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$33.23	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
LI LightParadox	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 72¢	$477.31	$450.61	-$26.7	50% 1593-1611 (3204)
1L 1lovejump	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 71.1¢	$287.28	$283.81	-$3.48	53% 816-719 (1535)
RN1CTR	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 33¢	$229.77	$268.06	+$38.29	53% 61787-54062 (115849)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 87.2¢	$87.65	$89.95	+$2.3	42% 8077-11281 (19358)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 70.7¢	$56	$62.38	+$6.37	52% 14594-13276 (27870)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 12.5¢	$58.79	$53.96	-$4.82	50% 1611-1634 (3245)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 89.3¢	$22.32	$22.38	+$0.05	57% 19393-14353 (33746)
MA MadridTime<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 90.4¢	$8.94	$8.52	-$0.43	49% 1546-1631 (3177)
PA Pan9X<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 62¢	$8.16	$8.09	-$0.07	54% 10096-8478 (18574)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 11.5¢	$3.47	$3.17	-$0.3	50% 21375-21650 (43025)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 11¢	$1.65	$1.58	-$0.07	64% 5335-2949 (8284)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Juan Carlos Pradoavg 33.1¢	$14.36	$0.22	-$6.58	58% 2812-2012 (4824)

Flaznorp

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$1,264.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$33.23

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

LightParadox

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$477.31

Value

$450.61

PnL

-$26.7

Record

50%

1593-1611 (3204)

1lovejump

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$287.28

Value

$283.81

PnL

-$3.48

Record

53%

816-719 (1535)

RN1CTR

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$229.77

Value

$268.06

PnL

+$38.29

Record

53%

61787-54062 (115849)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$87.65

Value

$89.95

PnL

+$2.3

Record

42%

8077-11281 (19358)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$56

Value

$62.38

PnL

+$6.37

Record

52%

14594-13276 (27870)

VenusianCTR<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$58.79

Value

$53.96

PnL

-$4.82

Record

50%

1611-1634 (3245)

BillBenter2026<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$22.32

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

19393-14353 (33746)

MadridTime<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$8.94

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

1546-1631 (3177)

Pan9X<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.09

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

10096-8478 (18574)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$3.47

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

21375-21650 (43025)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.07

Record

64%

5335-2949 (8284)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Juan Carlos Prado

Invested

$14.36

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$6.58

Record

58%

2812-2012 (4824)

Research grade

NeutralCamilo Ugo Carabelli at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.