Bratislava 2: Lucas Poullain vs Yannik Kelm

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Lucas Poullain (56%) · Lucas Poullain at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Lucas Poullain97¢Yannik Kelm3¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucas Poullain

Consensus Traders

Lucas Poullain 56%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$163.31

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 97¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucas Poullain at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucas Poullain

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lucas Poullain97%

Yannik Kelm3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucas Poullain9 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,150

Combined PnL+$39.84

Yannik Kelm7 traders

Total Value$218.2

Total Shares1,759

Combined PnL+$123.47

Lucas Poullain — 56%Yannik Kelm — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Lucas Poullainavg 92.6¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$34.69	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
FL Flaznorp	Lucas Poullainavg 94¢	$599.41	$569.47	-$29.93	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
OM omnibus-076daa	Lucas Poullainavg 73.7¢	$255.35	$327.45	+$72.1	50% 19814-20154 (39968)
UP UpTheBlues	Lucas Poullainavg 91.6¢	$234.42	$193.58	-$40.84	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Yannik Kelmavg 6¢	$34.51	$126.53	+$92.02	52% 5700-5266 (10966)
VeryLucky888<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 74.7¢	$59.81	$62.44	+$2.63	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 4.5¢	$47.06	$62.21	+$15.15	49% 2924-3042 (5966)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 7¢	$7	$22	+$15	47% 10052-11159 (21211)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 92.1¢	$39.43	$16.57	+$0.64	60% 4146-2784 (6930)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 73¢	$9.06	$9.87	+$0.81	53% 8072-7284 (15356)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 95¢	$5.75	$5.6	-$0.15	51% 994-958 (1952)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 27.8¢	$3.76	$3.39	-$0.38	58% 11427-8282 (19709)
RN1CTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 9¢	$1.1	$2.69	+$1.59	54% 58124-50358 (108482)
HRTrading<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 95¢	$2.26	$2.16	-$0.1	53% 6370-5754 (12124)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 6.6¢	$1.13	$0.94	-$0.19	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 8¢	$0.16	$0.44	+$0.28	52% 14025-12786 (26811)

NotJump

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$1,920.26

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$34.69

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

Flaznorp

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$599.41

Value

$569.47

PnL

-$29.93

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

omnibus-076daa

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$255.35

Value

$327.45

PnL

+$72.1

Record

50%

19814-20154 (39968)

UpTheBlues

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$234.42

Value

$193.58

PnL

-$40.84

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$34.51

Value

$126.53

PnL

+$92.02

Record

52%

5700-5266 (10966)

VeryLucky888<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$59.81

Value

$62.44

PnL

+$2.63

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$47.06

Value

$62.21

PnL

+$15.15

Record

49%

2924-3042 (5966)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

Value

$22

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

10052-11159 (21211)

thestingsnake<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$39.43

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$0.64

Record

60%

4146-2784 (6930)

iWasEnough<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

8072-7284 (15356)

ferdinand2<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

994-958 (1952)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

RN1CTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$1.1

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$1.59

Record

54%

58124-50358 (108482)

HRTrading<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

14025-12786 (26811)

Research grade

NeutralLucas Poullain at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lucas Poullain

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucas Poullain wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.