Kobe: David Poljak vs Yunseong Chung

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yunseong Chung (60%) · Yunseong Chung at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

David Poljak<1¢Yunseong Chung>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yunseong Chung

Consensus Traders

Yunseong Chung 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$152.9

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 99.5¢

+19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYunseong Chung at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yunseong Chung

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

David Poljak1%

Yunseong Chung100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yunseong Chung6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,347

Combined PnL+$315.31

David Poljak4 traders

Total Value$175.84

Total Shares1,633

Combined PnL-$162.41

Yunseong Chung — 60%David Poljak — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yunseong Chung. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on David Poljak) and the top 1000 (6 on Yunseong Chung) disagree here.

ctrYunseong Chung 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedDavid Poljak 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yunseong Chung 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Yunseong Chungavg 79.7¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$238.73	48% 210-228 (438)
FL Flaznorp	Yunseong Chungavg 96.2¢	$1.0K	$930.95	-$63.88	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
TH thestingsnake	Yunseong Chungavg 84.2¢	$629.38	$736.55	+$107.17	35% 234-442 (676)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yunseong Chungavg 73¢	$177.47	$210.18	+$32.71	56% 4142-3242 (7384)
RN1CTR<$100	David Poljakavg 20¢	$89.56	$89.56	+$0	54% 5936-5005 (10941)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	David Poljakavg 50¢	$1.1K	$77.68	+$4.2	50% 1068-1058 (2126)
└ Yunseong Chung leg	Yunseong Chungavg 50¢	$22.47	$43.37	+$487.92
└ David Poljak leg	David Poljakavg 50¢	$490.18	$34.31	-$483.72
38 38791873984189CTR	David Poljakavg 20.2¢	$212.08	$46.04	-$164.8	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	David Poljakavg 24¢	$37.71	$40.07	+$2.36	49% 605-637 (1242)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yunseong Chungavg 71.5¢	$8.35	$8.73	+$0.37	45% 442-540 (982)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yunseong Chungavg 78¢	$7.8	$8	+$0.2	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	David Poljakavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.18	+$0.03	33% 248-510 (758)

glennyorkshire

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$1,944.19

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$238.73

Record

48%

210-228 (438)

Flaznorp

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$1,000.23

Value

$930.95

PnL

-$63.88

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

thestingsnake

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$629.38

Value

$736.55

PnL

+$107.17

Record

35%

234-442 (676)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$177.47

Value

$210.18

PnL

+$32.71

Record

56%

4142-3242 (7384)

RN1CTR<$100

David Poljak

Invested

$89.56

Value

$89.56

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

5936-5005 (10941)

NotJumpARB<$100

David Poljak

Invested

$1,050

Value

$77.68

PnL

+$4.2

Record

50%

1068-1058 (2126)

Both legs:

Yunseong Chung$22.4750¢+$487.92

David Poljak$490.1850¢-$483.72

38791873984189CTR

David Poljak

Invested

$212.08

Value

$46.04

PnL

-$164.8

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

David Poljak

Invested

$37.71

Value

$40.07

PnL

+$2.36

Record

49%

605-637 (1242)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$8.35

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$0.37

Record

45%

442-540 (982)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$7.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

babybellsCTR<$100

David Poljak

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

33%

248-510 (758)

Research grade

NeutralYunseong Chung at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yunseong Chung

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yunseong Chung. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on David Poljak) and the top 1000 (6 on Yunseong Chung) disagree here.

ctrYunseong Chung 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedDavid Poljak 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yunseong Chung 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yunseong Chung wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.