Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Filip Jeff Planinsek, while the market favors Karl Poling (51%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Filip Jeff Planinsek vs Karl Poling

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Jeff Planinsek (50%) · Filip Jeff Planinsek at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Filip Jeff Planinsek50¢Karl Poling50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Consensus Traders

Filip Jeff Planinsek 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$427.28

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 49.5¢

-25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Jeff Planinsek at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Jeff Planinsek

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Karl Poling 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Filip Jeff Planinsek50%

Karl Poling51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karl Poling6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,484

Combined PnL+$634.21

Filip Jeff Planinsek6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,579

Combined PnL-$206.92

Karl Poling — 50%Filip Jeff Planinsek — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 85.5¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$421.21	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 85.5¢	$1.5K	$891.52	-$648
└ Karl Poling leg	Karl Polingavg 31.7¢	$382.78	$609.57	+$226.79
LI Limousin	Karl Polingavg 24.1¢	$914.76	$1.4K	+$488.42	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 58.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$122.48	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 79¢	$1.0K	$925.83	-$86.2	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1ARB<$100	Karl Polingavg 30.3¢	$199.34	$297.55	+$98.21	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 34¢	$85.37	$158.18	+$72.81
└ Karl Poling leg	Karl Polingavg 30.3¢	$113.97	$139.37	+$25.4
FE ferrariChampions2026	Karl Polingavg 24.9¢	$107.74	$218.55	+$110.81	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 51.5¢	$62.5	$60.09	-$2.41	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 76.1¢	$49.45	$51.35	+$1.9	57% 20227-15044 (35271)
VE Venusian<$100	Karl Polingavg 22.4¢	$24.71	$43.49	+$18.78	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Karl Polingavg 38.4¢	$31.2	$41.82	+$10.61	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
machinelearned<$100	Karl Polingavg 37¢	$32.36	$36.25	+$3.89	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
TRCM<$100	Karl Polingavg 47¢	$22.77	$24.47	+$1.7	55% 4121-3315 (7436)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 46¢	$25.09	$16.56	+$5.02	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 63.3¢	$12.65	$9.9	-$2.75	60% 4593-3091 (7684)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,922.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$421.21

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Filip Jeff Planinsek$1,539.5285.5¢-$648

Karl Poling$382.7831.7¢+$226.79

Limousin

Karl Poling

Invested

$914.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$488.42

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,288.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$122.48

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

MadridTimeCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$1,012.03

Value

$925.83

PnL

-$86.2

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1ARB<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$199.34

Value

$297.55

PnL

+$98.21

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Filip Jeff Planinsek$85.3734¢+$72.81

Karl Poling$113.9730.3¢+$25.4

ferrariChampions2026

Karl Poling

Invested

$107.74

Value

$218.55

PnL

+$110.81

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$62.5

Value

$60.09

PnL

-$2.41

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$49.45

Value

$51.35

PnL

+$1.9

Record

57%

20227-15044 (35271)

Venusian<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$24.71

Value

$43.49

PnL

+$18.78

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Eulhunter<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$31.2

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$10.61

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

machinelearned<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$32.36

Value

$36.25

PnL

+$3.89

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

TRCM<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$22.77

Value

$24.47

PnL

+$1.7

Record

55%

4121-3315 (7436)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$25.09

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$5.02

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$12.65

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$2.75

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Jeff Planinsek at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Jeff Planinsek

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Karl Poling 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Jeff Planinsek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.