Knoxville: Filip Jeff Planinsek vs Alastair Gray

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alastair Gray (33%) · Alastair Gray at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18

Filip Jeff Planinsek28¢Alastair Gray72¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alastair Gray

Consensus Traders

Alastair Gray 33%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$6.74

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 72.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlastair Gray at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alastair Gray

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Filip Jeff Planinsek28%

Alastair Gray73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alastair Gray3 traders

Total Value$936.61

Total Shares1,301

Combined PnL+$0.02

Filip Jeff Planinsek6 traders

Total Value$468.54

Total Shares1,691

Combined PnL-$6.76

Alastair Gray — 33%Filip Jeff Planinsek — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Alastair Gray. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFilip Jeff Planinsek 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Filip Jeff Planinsek 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Alastair Grayavg 72¢	$928.29	$928.3	+$0	54% 278-237 (515)
VE VenusianCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 28¢	$285.29	$280.2	-$5.09	32% 538-1128 (1666)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 28¢	$126	$123.75	-$2.25	33% 553-1135 (1688)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 27¢	$39.58	$40.37	+$0.79	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 28¢	$9.38	$9.21	-$0.17	33% 558-1111 (1669)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 28¢	$8.73	$8.57	-$0.16	32% 534-1112 (1646)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 27¢	$6.32	$6.43	+$0.12	52% 187-174 (361)
HY hydra1248<$100	Alastair Grayavg 73¢	$4.75	$4.72	-$0.03	78% 125-35 (160)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alastair Grayavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.6	+$0.05	38% 492-810 (1302)

0xheavy888

Alastair Gray

Invested

$928.29

Value

$928.3

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

VenusianCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$285.29

Value

$280.2

PnL

-$5.09

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

LightParadoxCTR

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$126

Value

$123.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$39.58

Value

$40.37

PnL

+$0.79

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.17

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

LimousinCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.57

PnL

-$0.16

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$6.32

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

hydra1248<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.03

Record

78%

125-35 (160)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

Research grade

NeutralAlastair Gray at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alastair Gray

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Alastair Gray. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFilip Jeff Planinsek 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Filip Jeff Planinsek 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alastair Gray wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.