Orleans: Zsombor Piros vs Clement Tabur
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Tabur (17%) · Clement Tabur at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Clement Tabur
6
Clement Tabur 17%
$3.6K
-$6.25
Research grade
NeutralClement Tabur at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Clement Tabur. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00 0000. | Clement Taburavg 58¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$18.96 | — 7-12 (19) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Zsombor Pirosavg 42¢ | $530.06 | $535.81 | +$5.74 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Zsombor Pirosavg 42¢ | $525 | $531.25 | +$6.25 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Zsombor Pirosavg 42.2¢ | $58.68 | $59.07 | +$0.39 | 49% 629-666 (1295) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Zsombor Pirosavg 42.1¢ | $42.23 | $42.56 | +$0.32 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Zsombor Pirosavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.1 | +$0 | 30% 358-853 (1211) |
Invested
$2,439
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$18.96
Record
—
7-12 (19)
Invested
$530.06
Value
$535.81
PnL
+$5.74
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$525
Value
$531.25
PnL
+$6.25
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$58.68
Value
$59.07
PnL
+$0.39
Record
49%
629-666 (1295)
Invested
$42.23
Value
$42.56
PnL
+$0.32
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
358-853 (1211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.