Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Zsombor Piros, while the market favors Daniel Altmaier (57%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Orleans: Zsombor Piros vs Daniel Altmaier

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Zsombor Piros (88%) · Zsombor Piros at 43¢ · $627 held · ends Nov 20

Zsombor Piros43¢Daniel Altmaier57¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zsombor Piros

Consensus Traders

Zsombor Piros 88%

Total Value

$627.02

Combined PnL

$68.08

Smart Money Entry

38.8¢ → 42.5¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Altmaier 57%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zsombor Piros43%

Daniel Altmaier57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zsombor Piros7 traders

Total Value$622.89

Total Shares1,432

Combined PnL+$68.04

Daniel Altmaier1 trader

Total Value$4.14

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.04

Zsombor Piros — 88%Daniel Altmaier — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Zsombor Piros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZsombor Piros 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZsombor Piros 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Zsombor Piros 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 39.4¢	$270.53	$298.41	+$27.88	8% 17-208 (225)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Zsombor Pirosavg 37.5¢	$143.2	$165.93	+$22.72	54% 217-187 (404)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 39¢	$55.35	$61.74	+$6.39	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 39¢	$50.33	$56.14	+$5.81	33% 593-1215 (1808)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 35¢	$16.63	$20.66	+$4.04	35% 235-434 (669)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 41¢	$16.47	$17.47	+$1	42% 98-135 (233)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Daniel Altmaieravg 57¢	$4.1	$4.14	+$0.04	41% 299-422 (721)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 40¢	$2.33	$2.53	+$0.2	33% 589-1191 (1780)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$270.53

Value

$298.41

PnL

+$27.88

Record

17-208 (225)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$143.2

Value

$165.93

PnL

+$22.72

Record

54%

217-187 (404)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$55.35

Value

$61.74

PnL

+$6.39

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

VenusianCTR<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$50.33

Value

$56.14

PnL

+$5.81

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$16.63

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$4.04

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$16.47

Value

$17.47

PnL

+$1

Record

42%

98-135 (233)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

299-422 (721)

LimousinCTR<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.2

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Altmaier 57%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Zsombor Piros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZsombor Piros 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZsombor Piros 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Zsombor Piros 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zsombor Piros wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.