Hersonissos 3: Benjamin Pietri vs Alexander Vasilev

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Pietri (45%) · Benjamin Pietri at 87¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 16

Benjamin Pietri87¢Alexander Vasilev13¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Benjamin Pietri

Consensus Traders

Benjamin Pietri 45%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$4.24

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Pietri at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Pietri

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Benjamin Pietri87%

Alexander Vasilev14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Benjamin Pietri5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares9,652

Combined PnL+$38.58

Alexander Vasilev6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares9,141

Combined PnL-$42.82

Benjamin Pietri — 45%Alexander Vasilev — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Benjamin Pietriavg 85.7¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$34.5	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Alexander Vasilevavg 14.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$31.29	46% 33752-39417 (73169)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 61¢	$92.91	$95.19	+$2.28	65% 2214-1211 (3425)
VE VenusianCTR	Alexander Vasilevavg 15.5¢	$102.94	$89.79	-$13.15	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Alexander Vasilevavg 12¢	$68.16	$82.36	+$14.2	51% 6049-5802 (11851)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Alexander Vasilevavg 13.6¢	$54.44	$51.65	-$2.8	57% 217-162 (379)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Alexander Vasilevavg 14.2¢	$53.56	$50.98	-$2.58	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
EF efntrick<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 59.9¢	$39.02	$40.7	+$1.68	49% 3734-3958 (7692)
0xheavy888<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 62¢	$29.52	$29.75	+$0.24	56% 8974-7089 (16063)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Alexander Vasilevavg 22.5¢	$20.25	$13.05	-$7.2	52% 6189-5710 (11899)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 87¢	$6.69	$6.58	-$0.12	53% 15711-13877 (29588)

Limousin

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$8,099.88

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$34.5

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$1,060.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$31.29

Record

46%

33752-39417 (73169)

darkumbreon88<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$92.91

Value

$95.19

PnL

+$2.28

Record

65%

2214-1211 (3425)

VenusianCTR

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$102.94

Value

$89.79

PnL

-$13.15

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$68.16

Value

$82.36

PnL

+$14.2

Record

51%

6049-5802 (11851)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$54.44

Value

$51.65

PnL

-$2.8

Record

57%

217-162 (379)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$53.56

Value

$50.98

PnL

-$2.58

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

efntrick<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$39.02

Value

$40.7

PnL

+$1.68

Record

49%

3734-3958 (7692)

0xheavy888<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$29.52

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.24

Record

56%

8974-7089 (16063)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Alexander Vasilev

Invested

$20.25

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$7.2

Record

52%

6189-5710 (11899)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

15711-13877 (29588)

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Pietri at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Pietri

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benjamin Pietri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.