Bratislava 2: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Sorger

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (93%) · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 89¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 9

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard89¢Sebastian Sorger11¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Consensus Traders

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 93%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$243.78

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 88.5¢

+5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard89%

Sebastian Sorger12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard13 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares10,330

Combined PnL+$248.42

Sebastian Sorger1 trader

Total Value$9.02

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$4.65

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — 93%Sebastian Sorger — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 86.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$68.97	49% 2926-3045 (5971)
FL Flaznorp	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 85.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$83.53	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
NO NotJump	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 86.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$34.7	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 78.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$125.19	52% 5702-5267 (10969)
38 38791873984189	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 85¢	$958.94	$900.86	-$28.65	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
UP UpTheBlues	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 80¢	$708.81	$779.88	+$71.07	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
EU Eulhunter	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 78¢	$144.12	$165.63	+$21.51	54% 5907-4953 (10860)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 82.8¢	$82.68	$88.58	+$5.91	52% 14029-12787 (26816)
HRTrading<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 88.7¢	$87.56	$88.55	+$0.99	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
VeryLucky888<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 78¢	$46.09	$47.27	+$1.18	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 86¢	$17.2	$17.9	+$0.7	57% 18870-13972 (32842)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 85.3¢	$13.8	$14.59	+$0.79	51% 997-961 (1958)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 23¢	$13.66	$9.02	-$4.65	60% 4149-2784 (6933)
TRCM<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 80¢	$4	$4.48	+$0.48	55% 3974-3204 (7178)

6512395314597884

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$2,345.1

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$68.97

Record

49%

2926-3045 (5971)

Flaznorp

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,921.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$83.53

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

NotJump

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,721.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$34.7

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

CandleHammerDrums

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,268.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$125.19

Record

52%

5702-5267 (10969)

38791873984189

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$958.94

Value

$900.86

PnL

-$28.65

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

UpTheBlues

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$708.81

Value

$779.88

PnL

+$71.07

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

Eulhunter

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$144.12

Value

$165.63

PnL

+$21.51

Record

54%

5907-4953 (10860)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$82.68

Value

$88.58

PnL

+$5.91

Record

52%

14029-12787 (26816)

HRTrading<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$87.56

Value

$88.55

PnL

+$0.99

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

VeryLucky888<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$46.09

Value

$47.27

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

BillBenter2026<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17.9

PnL

+$0.7

Record

57%

18870-13972 (32842)

ferdinand2<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$0.79

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$13.66

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$4.65

Record

60%

4149-2784 (6933)

TRCM<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

55%

3974-3204 (7178)

Research grade

NeutralGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.