Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ryan Peniston, while the market favors Henry Searle (82%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Ryan Peniston vs Henry Searle

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ryan Peniston (56%) · Ryan Peniston at 19¢ · $276 held · ends Nov 16

Ryan Peniston19¢Henry Searle81¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ryan Peniston

Consensus Traders

Ryan Peniston 56%

Total Value

$276.27

Combined PnL

$97.42

Smart Money Entry

25.5¢ → 18.5¢

-27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRyan Peniston at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Peniston

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Henry Searle 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ryan Peniston19%

Henry Searle82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryan Peniston5 traders

Total Value$239.61

Total Shares394

Combined PnL+$128.27

Henry Searle4 traders

Total Value$36.66

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$30.85

Ryan Peniston — 56%Henry Searle — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1meCTR	Ryan Penistonavg 26.1¢	$69.39	$149.75	+$80.36	58% 231-170 (401)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Ryan Penistonavg 21.9¢	$56.42	$34.55	+$16.54	56% 1995-1542 (3537)
LI Limousin<$100	Henry Searleavg 74¢	$50.81	$27.47	-$23.34	46% 2784-3230 (6014)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ryan Penistonavg 29¢	$10.9	$22.54	+$11.64	45% 2690-3266 (5956)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Ryan Penistonavg 27.6¢	$9.25	$20.11	+$10.87	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Ryan Penistonavg 18¢	$3.8	$12.66	+$8.86	52% 6198-5722 (11920)
VeryLucky888<$100	Henry Searleavg 71¢	$10.65	$6	-$4.65	58% 53792-38296 (92088)
TRCM<$100	Henry Searleavg 79.8¢	$3.99	$2	-$1.99	55% 4139-3333 (7472)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Henry Searleavg 69¢	$2.06	$1.19	-$0.86	52% 49502-46467 (95969)

thirdt1meCTR

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$69.39

Value

$149.75

PnL

+$80.36

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$56.42

Value

$34.55

PnL

+$16.54

Record

56%

1995-1542 (3537)

Limousin<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$50.81

Value

$27.47

PnL

-$23.34

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$10.9

Value

$22.54

PnL

+$11.64

Record

45%

2690-3266 (5956)

VenusianCTR<$100

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$9.25

Value

$20.11

PnL

+$10.87

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$3.8

Value

$12.66

PnL

+$8.86

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

VeryLucky888<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$10.65

Value

PnL

-$4.65

Record

58%

53792-38296 (92088)

TRCM<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$3.99

Value

PnL

-$1.99

Record

55%

4139-3333 (7472)

Flaznorp<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.86

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

Research grade

AvoidRyan Peniston at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Peniston

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Henry Searle 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryan Peniston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.