Drummondville: Joshua Peck vs Theodore Dean

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Theodore Dean (36%) · Theodore Dean at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Joshua Peck12¢Theodore Dean88¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Theodore Dean

Consensus Traders

Theodore Dean 36%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.16

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 88.5¢

+42% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTheodore Dean at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Theodore Dean

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Joshua Peck12%

Theodore Dean89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Theodore Dean5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL+$41.71

Joshua Peck9 traders

Total Value$192.06

Total Shares1,845

Combined PnL-$41.87

Theodore Dean — 36%Joshua Peck — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Theodore Deanavg 50¢	$1.1K	$955	+$15	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LI Limousin	Theodore Deanavg 87.1¢	$441.86	$464.23	+$22.37	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 11¢	$66.72	$57.62	-$9.1	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 11¢	$58.48	$50.51	-$7.97	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 13¢	$52	$34	-$18	47% 376-418 (794)
VeryLucky888<$100	Theodore Deanavg 69¢	$55.2	$33.66	+$4.22	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 13.2¢	$34.14	$27.56	-$6.58	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 24.9¢	$17.18	$17.59	+$0.41	48% 490-523 (1013)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Theodore Deanavg 74¢	$10	$10.06	+$0.07	48% 229-253 (482)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Theodore Deanavg 86¢	$8.6	$8.65	+$0.05	36% 259-457 (716)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 12.6¢	$3.15	$2.38	-$0.77	48% 643-686 (1329)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 13.5¢	$1.35	$1.45	+$0.1	35% 277-525 (802)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 12¢	$0.74	$0.77	+$0.03	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
RN1CTR<$100	Joshua Peckavg 8¢	$0.17	$0.18	+$0.01	54% 6042-5119 (11161)

NotJump

Theodore Dean

Invested

$1,050

Value

$955

PnL

+$15

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Limousin

Theodore Dean

Invested

$441.86

Value

$464.23

PnL

+$22.37

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$66.72

Value

$57.62

PnL

-$9.1

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$58.48

Value

$50.51

PnL

-$7.97

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$52

Value

$34

PnL

-$18

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

VeryLucky888<$100

Theodore Dean

Invested

$55.2

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$4.22

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$34.14

Value

$27.56

PnL

-$6.58

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$17.18

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

glennyorkshire<$100

Theodore Dean

Invested

$10

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

229-253 (482)

thestingsnake<$100

Theodore Dean

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

259-457 (716)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.77

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

babybellsCTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

35%

277-525 (802)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

RN1CTR<$100

Joshua Peck

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Research grade

NeutralTheodore Dean at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Theodore Dean

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Theodore Dean wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.