Monastir: Semen Pankin vs Maxime Janvier

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Maxime Janvier (53%) · Maxime Janvier at 69¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Semen Pankin32¢Maxime Janvier68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maxime Janvier

Consensus Traders

Maxime Janvier 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$15.94

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 68.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaxime Janvier at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maxime Janvier

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Semen Pankin32%

Maxime Janvier69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxime Janvier8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,500

Combined PnL+$466.5

Semen Pankin7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,636

Combined PnL-$482.43

Maxime Janvier — 53%Semen Pankin — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Maxime Janvieravg 62.5¢	$883.7	$968.81	+$85.11	45% 2723-3293 (6016)
38 38791873984189CTR	Semen Pankinavg 38.6¢	$1.3K	$927.47	-$177.08	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
MA MadridTime	Maxime Janvieravg 62.4¢	$747.58	$820.91	+$73.33	45% 2742-3329 (6071)
LI Limousin	Maxime Janvieravg 54¢	$636.18	$806.74	+$170.56	46% 2839-3298 (6137)
TH thestingsnake	Maxime Janvieravg 58.8¢	$706.65	$777.6	+$91.19	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Semen Pankinavg 39.9¢	$692.37	$411.23	-$281.14	58% 233-171 (404)
VE Venusian	Maxime Janvieravg 75.3¢	$381.68	$392.85	+$11.17	45% 2804-3415 (6219)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Semen Pankinavg 46.8¢	$279.42	$260.27	-$19.15	52% 49624-46573 (96197)
└ Maxime Janvier leg	Maxime Janvieravg 57.4¢	$138.54	$165.35	+$26.8
└ Semen Pankin leg	Semen Pankinavg 46.8¢	$140.88	$94.92	-$45.96
EU Eulhunter<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 51.5¢	$51.46	$68.5	+$17.04	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 66.8¢	$54.08	$59.54	+$5.45	57% 20333-15125 (35458)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Maxime Janvieravg 50.5¢	$38.94	$51.58	+$12.64	52% 6204-5726 (11930)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 42.8¢	$56.2	$45.2	-$11	54% 10552-8959 (19511)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 48.6¢	$33.74	$21.87	-$11.87	65% 25764-13858 (39622)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 44¢	$18.91	$17.41	-$1.5	56% 9039-7126 (16165)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 31¢	$15.5	$15.75	+$0.25	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Semen Pankinavg 41¢	$6.95	$6.86	-$0.08	49% 3737-3961 (7698)

LightParadox

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$883.7

Value

$968.81

PnL

+$85.11

Record

45%

2723-3293 (6016)

38791873984189CTR

Semen Pankin

Invested

$1,274.04

Value

$927.47

PnL

-$177.08

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

MadridTime

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$747.58

Value

$820.91

PnL

+$73.33

Record

45%

2742-3329 (6071)

Limousin

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$636.18

Value

$806.74

PnL

+$170.56

Record

46%

2839-3298 (6137)

thestingsnake

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$706.65

Value

$777.6

PnL

+$91.19

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

thirdt1meCTR

Semen Pankin

Invested

$692.37

Value

$411.23

PnL

-$281.14

Record

58%

233-171 (404)

Venusian

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$381.68

Value

$392.85

PnL

+$11.17

Record

45%

2804-3415 (6219)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$279.42

Value

$260.27

PnL

-$19.15

Record

52%

49624-46573 (96197)

Both legs:

Maxime Janvier$138.5457.4¢+$26.8

Semen Pankin$140.8846.8¢-$45.96

Eulhunter<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$51.46

Value

$68.5

PnL

+$17.04

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

BillBenter2026<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$54.08

Value

$59.54

PnL

+$5.45

Record

57%

20333-15125 (35458)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Maxime Janvier

Invested

$38.94

Value

$51.58

PnL

+$12.64

Record

52%

6204-5726 (11930)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$56.2

Value

$45.2

PnL

-$11

Record

54%

10552-8959 (19511)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$33.74

Value

$21.87

PnL

-$11.87

Record

65%

25764-13858 (39622)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$18.91

Value

$17.41

PnL

-$1.5

Record

56%

9039-7126 (16165)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

efntrickCTR<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.86

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

3737-3961 (7698)

Research grade

NeutralMaxime Janvier at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maxime Janvier

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maxime Janvier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.