Brisbane 3: Carl Overbeck vs Florian Broska

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Carl Overbeck (94%) · Carl Overbeck at 88¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 16

Carl Overbeck88¢Florian Broska12¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Carl Overbeck

Consensus Traders

Carl Overbeck 94%

Total Value

$41.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 87.5¢

+11% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateCarl Overbeck at 88%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carl Overbeck

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Carl Overbeck88%

Florian Broska13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carl Overbeck17 traders

Total Value$38.7K

Total Shares43,851

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Florian Broska1 trader

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares27,498

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Carl Overbeck — 94%Florian Broska — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Carl Overbeck. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Carl Overbeck) and the top 1000 (9 on Florian Broska) disagree here.

sharpCarl Overbeck 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCarl Overbeck 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarl Overbeck 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florian Broska 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Carl Overbeckavg 78.6¢	$15.3K	$16.0K	+$670.58	30% 108-250 (358)
MA MadridTime	Carl Overbeckavg 78¢	$6.8K	$7.8K	+$43.75	27% 100-275 (375)
TH thirdt1me	Carl Overbeckavg 80.5¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$420.42	0% 0-36 (36)
RN1	Carl Overbeckavg 78¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$74.73	54% 248-213 (461)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Florian Broskaavg 22.2¢	$6.1K	$3.2K	$-2.9K	2% 1-62 (63)
LI Limousin	Carl Overbeckavg 83.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$2.35	26% 102-296 (398)
LI LightParadox	Carl Overbeckavg 81.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$96.92	28% 104-265 (369)
38 38791873984189	Carl Overbeckavg 78¢	$996.38	$1.0K	+$12.86	49% 398-410 (808)
TH thestingsnake	Carl Overbeckavg 82.1¢	$435.2	$458.45	+$23.25	26% 40-112 (152)
FL Flaznorp	Carl Overbeckavg 86.6¢	$289.33	$295.52	+$6.18	52% 271-247 (518)
BA babybells	Carl Overbeckavg 79.4¢	$212.7	$228.73	+$16.02	0% 0-94 (94)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Carl Overbeckavg 80.6¢	$193.94	$197.11	+$3.16	39% 44-69 (113)
EU Eulhunter	Carl Overbeckavg 78¢	$143.52	$146.28	+$2.76	55% 37-30 (67)
VE Venusian	Carl Overbeckavg 81¢	$141.49	$141.43	-$0.06	26% 97-281 (378)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Carl Overbeckavg 59¢	$94.03	$94.03	+$0	36% 86-155 (241)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Carl Overbeckavg 80.9¢	$44.5	$48.68	+$4.17	16% 34-184 (218)
machinelearned<$100	Carl Overbeckavg 78.7¢	$47.19	$47.09	-$0.1	44% 161-208 (369)
VeryLucky888<$100	Carl Overbeckavg 58¢	$1.39	$1.42	+$0.02	50% 76-76 (152)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$15,311.19

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$670.58

Record

30%

108-250 (358)

MadridTime

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$6,824.28

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$43.75

Record

27%

100-275 (375)

thirdt1me

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$4,059.5

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$420.42

Record

0-36 (36)

RN1

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$3,885.96

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$74.73

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR

Florian Broska

Invested

$6,092.57

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

1-62 (63)

Limousin

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$2,044.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$2.35

Record

26%

102-296 (398)

LightParadox

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$1,725.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$96.92

Record

28%

104-265 (369)

38791873984189

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$996.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.86

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

thestingsnake

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$435.2

Value

$458.45

PnL

+$23.25

Record

26%

40-112 (152)

Flaznorp

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$289.33

Value

$295.52

PnL

+$6.18

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

babybells

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$212.7

Value

$228.73

PnL

+$16.02

Record

0-94 (94)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$193.94

Value

$197.11

PnL

+$3.16

Record

39%

44-69 (113)

Eulhunter

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$143.52

Value

$146.28

PnL

+$2.76

Record

55%

37-30 (67)

Venusian

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$141.49

Value

$141.43

PnL

-$0.06

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$94.03

Value

$94.03

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

86-155 (241)

BillBenter2026<$100

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$44.5

Value

$48.68

PnL

+$4.17

Record

16%

34-184 (218)

machinelearned<$100

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$47.19

Value

$47.09

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

161-208 (369)

VeryLucky888<$100

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

Research grade

Research candidateCarl Overbeck at 88%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carl Overbeck

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Carl Overbeck. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Carl Overbeck) and the top 1000 (9 on Florian Broska) disagree here.

sharpCarl Overbeck 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCarl Overbeck 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarl Overbeck 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florian Broska 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carl Overbeck wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.