Hersonissos 3: Vladyslav Orlov vs Lorenzo Angelini

3 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Vladyslav Orlov (13%) · Vladyslav Orlov at 56¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 16

Vladyslav Orlov56¢Lorenzo Angelini44¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vladyslav Orlov

Consensus Traders

Vladyslav Orlov 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 55.5¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVladyslav Orlov at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vladyslav Orlov

3 of 24 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vladyslav Orlov56%

Lorenzo Angelini45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vladyslav Orlov3 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares55,347

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Lorenzo Angelini21 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares49,261

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Vladyslav Orlov — 13%Lorenzo Angelini — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Vladyslav Orlovavg 49.9¢	$24.3K	$21.2K	$-3.1K	47% 125-141 (266)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 50.7¢	$6.2K	$6.0K	-$269.99	47% 2254-2567 (4821)
alpheclabs2CTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 47.6¢	$4.5K	$4.2K	-$294.11	47% 1763-1979 (3742)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Vladyslav Orlovavg 45¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$455	49% 591-610 (1201)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 48.1¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$337.16	57% 219-165 (384)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 43.5¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$259.76	51% 6062-5820 (11882)
└ Lorenzo Angelini leg	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 43.5¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$191.69
└ Vladyslav Orlov leg	Vladyslav Orlovavg 46¢	$569.28	$637.34	+$68.07
VE VenusianCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 39.9¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$509.82	45% 2677-3239 (5916)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 53.7¢	$7.7K	$1.8K	$-1.1K	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 47.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$85.68	45% 2614-3160 (5774)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 52.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$110.28	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 44.5¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$16.5	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
LI LimousinCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 54.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$225.64	46% 2696-3123 (5819)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 54.3¢	$644.25	$599.94	-$37.71	58% 53685-38217 (91902)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 55¢	$703.35	$569.59	-$133.76	50% 24101-24191 (48292)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 32.2¢	$306.25	$422.71	+$116.47	46% 33759-39427 (73186)
EF efntrickCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 56.4¢	$231.3	$231.65	-$34.5	49% 3734-3958 (7692)
EU EulhunterCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 48.1¢	$185.88	$187.45	+$1.57	53% 6834-5982 (12816)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 50.6¢	$194.44	$170.34	-$24.11	45% 2602-3122 (5724)
TRCMCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 34.1¢	$104.02	$132.68	+$28.65	55% 4137-3332 (7469)
machinelearnedCTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 46.3¢	$104.89	$108.72	+$3.83	54% 10489-8893 (19382)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 51.3¢	$104.42	$98.63	-$5.78	52% 6191-5714 (11905)
latvian.demon<$100	Vladyslav Orlovavg 50.2¢	$87.94	$76.13	-$11.81	55% 823-686 (1509)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 37¢	$29.6	$35.6	+$6	51% 6908-6567 (13475)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 53¢	$35.76	$33.25	-$2.51	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Lorenzo Angeliniavg 45.7¢	$7.31	$7.76	+$0.45	48% 40299-43258 (83557)

robustmst

Vladyslav Orlov

Invested

$24,310.72

Value

$21.2K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

47%

125-141 (266)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$6,246.67

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$269.99

Record

47%

2254-2567 (4821)

alpheclabs2CTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$4,455.67

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$294.11

Record

47%

1763-1979 (3742)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Vladyslav Orlov

Invested

$2,926.51

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$455

Record

49%

591-610 (1201)

thirdt1meCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$2,587.81

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$337.16

Record

57%

219-165 (384)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$2,231.82

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$259.76

Record

51%

6062-5820 (11882)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Angelini$1,662.5443.5¢+$191.69

Vladyslav Orlov$569.2846¢+$68.07

VenusianCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$1,492.95

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$509.82

Record

45%

2677-3239 (5916)

38791873984189CTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$7,707.03

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

MadridTimeCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$1,513.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$85.68

Record

45%

2614-3160 (5774)

FlaznorpCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$1,528.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$110.28

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

thestingsnakeCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$1,295.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.5

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

LimousinCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$1,226.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$225.64

Record

46%

2696-3123 (5819)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$644.25

Value

$599.94

PnL

-$37.71

Record

58%

53685-38217 (91902)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$703.35

Value

$569.59

PnL

-$133.76

Record

50%

24101-24191 (48292)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$306.25

Value

$422.71

PnL

+$116.47

Record

46%

33759-39427 (73186)

efntrickCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$231.3

Value

$231.65

PnL

-$34.5

Record

49%

3734-3958 (7692)

EulhunterCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$185.88

Value

$187.45

PnL

+$1.57

Record

53%

6834-5982 (12816)

LightParadoxCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$194.44

Value

$170.34

PnL

-$24.11

Record

45%

2602-3122 (5724)

TRCMCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$104.02

Value

$132.68

PnL

+$28.65

Record

55%

4137-3332 (7469)

machinelearnedCTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$104.89

Value

$108.72

PnL

+$3.83

Record

54%

10489-8893 (19382)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$104.42

Value

$98.63

PnL

-$5.78

Record

52%

6191-5714 (11905)

latvian.demon<$100

Vladyslav Orlov

Invested

$87.94

Value

$76.13

PnL

-$11.81

Record

55%

823-686 (1509)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$29.6

Value

$35.6

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

6908-6567 (13475)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$35.76

Value

$33.25

PnL

-$2.51

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

lryyyCTR<$100

Lorenzo Angelini

Invested

$7.31

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

40299-43258 (83557)

Research grade

NeutralVladyslav Orlov at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vladyslav Orlov

3 of 24 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vladyslav Orlov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.