Lima: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Juan Pablo Varillas

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Pablo Varillas (9%) · Juan Pablo Varillas at 61¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 19

Genaro Alberto Olivieri40¢Juan Pablo Varillas60¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Pablo Varillas

Consensus Traders

Juan Pablo Varillas 9%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$9.85

Research grade

NeutralJuan Pablo Varillas at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Pablo Varillas

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Genaro Alberto Olivieri40%

Juan Pablo Varillas61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Pablo Varillas1 trader

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,679

Combined PnL-$47.32

Genaro Alberto Olivieri10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,178

Combined PnL+$37.47

Juan Pablo Varillas — 9%Genaro Alberto Olivieri — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 61.5¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$47.32	32% 10-21 (31)
VeryLucky888CTR	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 38.5¢	$808.5	$829.5	+$21	52% 737-689 (1426)
0xheavy888CTR	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 39.5¢	$526.93	$526.93	+$0	54% 266-226 (492)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 38¢	$159.87	$166.18	+$6.31	59% 459-322 (781)
GC GC-PCTR	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 38¢	$133	$138.25	+$5.25	26% 152-423 (575)
NM NM-PCTR	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 38¢	$133	$138.25	+$5.25	59% 3534-2412 (5946)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 39¢	$117.78	$119.29	+$1.51	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 39.5¢	$86.12	$86.11	-$0.01	53% 182-164 (346)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 41¢	$27.89	$26.53	-$1.36	32% 522-1096 (1618)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 41¢	$8.33	$7.92	-$0.41	33% 541-1119 (1660)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 40¢	$6	$5.93	-$0.07	37% 472-787 (1259)

0000.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$2,878

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$47.32

Record

32%

10-21 (31)

VeryLucky888CTR

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$808.5

Value

$829.5

PnL

+$21

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

0xheavy888CTR

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$526.93

Value

$526.93

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

266-226 (492)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$159.87

Value

$166.18

PnL

+$6.31

Record

59%

459-322 (781)

GC-PCTR

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$133

Value

$138.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

26%

152-423 (575)

NM-PCTR

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$133

Value

$138.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

3534-2412 (5946)

FlaznorpCTR

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$117.78

Value

$119.29

PnL

+$1.51

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$86.12

Value

$86.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

182-164 (346)

LimousinCTR<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$27.89

Value

$26.53

PnL

-$1.36

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$8.33

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$0.41

Record

33%

541-1119 (1660)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

472-787 (1259)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Pablo Varillas at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Pablo Varillas

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Pablo Varillas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.