Montevideo: Bruno (2002) Oliveira vs Maximo Zeitune

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maximo Zeitune (56%) · Maximo Zeitune at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 22

Bruno (2002) Oliveira<1¢Maximo Zeitune>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maximo Zeitune

Consensus Traders

Maximo Zeitune 56%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$42.11

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaximo Zeitune at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maximo Zeitune

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bruno (2002) Oliveira1%

Maximo Zeitune100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maximo Zeitune5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,105

Combined PnL+$434.46

Bruno (2002) Oliveira4 traders

Total Value$790.72

Total Shares8,723

Combined PnL-$392.35

Maximo Zeitune — 56%Bruno (2002) Oliveira — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Maximo Zeitune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBruno (2002) Oliveira 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Maximo Zeitune 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Maximo Zeituneavg 94¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$427.77	38% 1341-2205 (3546)
NO NotJumpCTR	Bruno (2002) Oliveiraavg 43¢	$1.1K	$713.87	-$27.33	50% 1120-1122 (2242)
BA babybells	Maximo Zeituneavg 95¢	$202	$199.52	+$2.32	34% 267-521 (788)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 94¢	$78.36	$82.55	+$4.19	49% 630-667 (1297)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bruno (2002) Oliveiraavg 6¢	$418.18	$66.36	-$351.82	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 94¢	$23.5	$23.5	+$0	49% 4635-4903 (9538)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Maximo Zeituneavg 93¢	$23.25	$17.63	+$0.19	36% 251-449 (700)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bruno (2002) Oliveiraavg 8¢	$22.89	$8.58	-$14.3	48% 3952-4304 (8256)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Bruno (2002) Oliveiraavg 0.4¢	$0.8	$1.91	+$1.1	53% 7472-6600 (14072)

Venusian

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$7,310.92

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$427.77

Record

38%

1341-2205 (3546)

NotJumpCTR

Bruno (2002) Oliveira

Invested

$1,062

Value

$713.87

PnL

-$27.33

Record

50%

1120-1122 (2242)

babybells

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$202

Value

$199.52

PnL

+$2.32

Record

34%

267-521 (788)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$78.36

Value

$82.55

PnL

+$4.19

Record

49%

630-667 (1297)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bruno (2002) Oliveira

Invested

$418.18

Value

$66.36

PnL

-$351.82

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

Flaznorp<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4635-4903 (9538)

thestingsnake<$100

Maximo Zeitune

Invested

$23.25

Value

$17.63

PnL

+$0.19

Record

36%

251-449 (700)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bruno (2002) Oliveira

Invested

$22.89

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$14.3

Record

48%

3952-4304 (8256)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Bruno (2002) Oliveira

Invested

$0.8

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

7472-6600 (14072)

Research grade

NeutralMaximo Zeitune at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Maximo Zeitune

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Maximo Zeitune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBruno (2002) Oliveira 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Maximo Zeitune 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maximo Zeitune wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.