Sydney: Benjamin O'Connell vs Chase Ferguson
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Chase Ferguson (45%) · Chase Ferguson at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Chase Ferguson
11
Chase Ferguson 45%
$2.8K
$199.59
70.7¢ → 84.5¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralChase Ferguson at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpCTR | Benjamin O'Connellavg 49.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.1 | 51% 917-874 (1791) |
LI LightParadox | Chase Fergusonavg 72¢ | $655.1 | $750.64 | +$95.54 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Chase Fergusonavg 69¢ | $635.86 | $523.1 | +$113.65 | 48% 547-581 (1128) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Benjamin O'Connellavg 28.6¢ | $350.56 | $350.15 | -$0.41 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Chase Fergusonavg 70¢ | $32.81 | $39.61 | +$6.8 | 62% 227-140 (367) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Benjamin O'Connellavg 29¢ | $43.84 | $33.21 | -$10.63 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Chase Fergusonavg 71¢ | $19.99 | $19.29 | -$0.7 | 45% 177-217 (394) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Benjamin O'Connellavg 20.1¢ | $16.87 | $12.99 | -$3.88 | 56% 4083-3191 (7274) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Benjamin O'Connellavg 19¢ | $9.69 | $9.95 | +$0.26 | 52% 198-180 (378) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Chase Fergusonavg 67¢ | $9.37 | $9.58 | +$0.21 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
BA babybellsCTR<$100 | Benjamin O'Connellavg 28.3¢ | $3.66 | $2.33 | -$1.33 | 31% 219-484 (703) |
Invested
$1,052.91
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
917-874 (1791)
Invested
$655.1
Value
$750.64
PnL
+$95.54
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
Invested
$635.86
Value
$523.1
PnL
+$113.65
Record
48%
547-581 (1128)
Invested
$350.56
Value
$350.15
PnL
-$0.41
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
Invested
$32.81
Value
$39.61
PnL
+$6.8
Record
62%
227-140 (367)
Invested
$43.84
Value
$33.21
PnL
-$10.63
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$19.29
PnL
-$0.7
Record
45%
177-217 (394)
Invested
$16.87
Value
$12.99
PnL
-$3.88
Record
56%
4083-3191 (7274)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
198-180 (378)
Invested
$9.37
Value
$9.58
PnL
+$0.21
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$1.33
Record
31%
219-484 (703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
NotJump
CTRBenjamin O'Connell — $1.1K
LightParadox
Chase Ferguson — $750.64
CandleHammerDrums
Chase Ferguson — $523.1
38791873984189
CTRBenjamin O'Connell — $350.15
thatsabing0
Chase Ferguson — $39.61
Flaznorp
CTRBenjamin O'Connell — $33.21
glennyorkshire
Chase Ferguson — $19.29
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRBenjamin O'Connell — $12.99
Eulhunter
CTRBenjamin O'Connell — $9.95
Pan9X
Chase Ferguson — $9.58