Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cameron Norrie (71%) · Cameron Norrie at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Cameron Norrie70¢Matteo Arnaldi30¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Cameron Norrie

Consensus Traders

Cameron Norrie 71%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$162.83

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 69.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Research candidateCameron Norrie at 70%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cameron Norrie

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cameron Norrie70%

Matteo Arnaldi31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cameron Norrie5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,668

Combined PnL+$157.85

Matteo Arnaldi2 traders

Total Value$748.87

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL+$4.97

Cameron Norrie — 71%Matteo Arnaldi — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Cameron Norrie. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCameron Norrie 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCameron Norrie 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCameron Norrie 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Cameron Norrie 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Cameron Norrieavg 67.1¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$98.92	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
DV dv-pm	Cameron Norrieavg 66¢	$789.69	$831.57	+$41.88	49% 3236-3320 (6556)
K5 k56CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 33.3¢	$750	$720.73	+$4.51	57% 890-659 (1549)
FL Flaznorp	Cameron Norrieavg 65¢	$222.29	$237.65	+$15.36	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 66¢	$31.5	$33.25	+$1.75	54% 5907-4953 (10860)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Matteo Arnaldiavg 30¢	$27.68	$28.14	+$0.46	51% 1592-1534 (3126)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.9	-$0.05	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

VeryLucky888

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$2,815.75

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$98.92

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

dv-pm

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$789.69

Value

$831.57

PnL

+$41.88

Record

49%

3236-3320 (6556)

k56CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$750

Value

$720.73

PnL

+$4.51

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

Flaznorp

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$222.29

Value

$237.65

PnL

+$15.36

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

Eulhunter<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$31.5

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

54%

5907-4953 (10860)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$27.68

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$0.46

Record

51%

1592-1534 (3126)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

Research candidateCameron Norrie at 70%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cameron Norrie

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Cameron Norrie. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCameron Norrie 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCameron Norrie 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCameron Norrie 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Cameron Norrie 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cameron Norrie wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.