Drummondville: Niels Peter van Noord vs Joshua Charlton

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Joshua Charlton (67%) · Joshua Charlton at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Niels Peter van Noord31¢Joshua Charlton69¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joshua Charlton

Consensus Traders

Joshua Charlton 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$92.26

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 69.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoshua Charlton at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joshua Charlton

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Niels Peter van Noord31%

Joshua Charlton70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joshua Charlton10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,131

Combined PnL-$148.18

Niels Peter van Noord5 traders

Total Value$977.63

Total Shares3,462

Combined PnL+$55.91

Joshua Charlton — 67%Niels Peter van Noord — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake	Joshua Charltonavg 72.1¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$56.32	37% 273-462 (735)
LI Limousin	Joshua Charltonavg 74.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$71.46	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Niels Peter van Noordavg 27.4¢	$643.91	$591.8	+$7.81	47% 387-434 (821)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 70¢	$548.64	$511.36	+$37.03	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Joshua Charlton leg	Joshua Charltonavg 70¢	$263.9	$273.33	+$9.43
└ Niels Peter van Noord leg	Niels Peter van Noordavg 25.7¢	$222.53	$238.03	+$27.6
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Niels Peter van Noordavg 30¢	$674.25	$398.01	-$12.33	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
└ Niels Peter van Noord leg	Niels Peter van Noordavg 30¢	$248.7	$252.85	+$4.15
└ Joshua Charlton leg	Joshua Charltonavg 72.6¢	$151.71	$145.17	-$16.48
FL FlaznorpCTR	Niels Peter van Noordavg 25.7¢	$278.96	$319.74	+$40.78	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
EF efntrick	Joshua Charltonavg 76¢	$163.4	$163.4	+$0	46% 121-141 (262)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Niels Peter van Noordavg 25.3¢	$164.2	$157.31	+$14.78	34% 285-542 (827)
└ Niels Peter van Noord leg	Niels Peter van Noordavg 25.3¢	$92.91	$111.87	+$19.22
└ Joshua Charlton leg	Joshua Charltonavg 74.6¢	$48.77	$45.44	-$4.44
TRCM<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 74¢	$74.06	$74.56	+$0.5	18% 102-467 (569)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Niels Peter van Noordavg 26¢	$31.62	$36.44	+$4.82	48% 653-716 (1369)
PA Pan9X<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 76¢	$27.36	$27.36	+$0	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Niels Peter van Noordavg 26.3¢	$23.55	$25.52	+$1.98	41% 137-197 (334)
VeryLucky888<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 76¢	$19	$19	+$0	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 76¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	47% 241-270 (511)
SC SchruteBucks	Joshua Charltonavg 74¢	$370	$5.02	-$20.75	29% 210-521 (731)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Niels Peter van Noordavg 24¢	$3.6	$4.13	+$0.52	46% 506-602 (1108)
LI LightParadox<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 70¢	$4.05	$3.91	-$0.14	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Joshua Charltonavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.8	+$0	43% 878-1159 (2037)

thestingsnake

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$1,674.88

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$56.32

Record

37%

273-462 (735)

Limousin

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$1,162.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$71.46

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

thirdt1meCTR

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$643.91

Value

$591.8

PnL

+$7.81

Record

47%

387-434 (821)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$548.64

Value

$511.36

PnL

+$37.03

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Joshua Charlton$263.970¢+$9.43

Niels Peter van Noord$222.5325.7¢+$27.6

MadridTimeARB<$100

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$674.25

Value

$398.01

PnL

-$12.33

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

Both legs:

Niels Peter van Noord$248.730¢+$4.15

Joshua Charlton$151.7172.6¢-$16.48

FlaznorpCTR

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$278.96

Value

$319.74

PnL

+$40.78

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

efntrick

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$163.4

Value

$163.4

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

121-141 (262)

babybellsARB<$100

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$164.2

Value

$157.31

PnL

+$14.78

Record

34%

285-542 (827)

Both legs:

Niels Peter van Noord$92.9125.3¢+$19.22

Joshua Charlton$48.7774.6¢-$4.44

TRCM<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$74.06

Value

$74.56

PnL

+$0.5

Record

18%

102-467 (569)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$31.62

Value

$36.44

PnL

+$4.82

Record

48%

653-716 (1369)

Pan9X<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$27.36

Value

$27.36

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$23.55

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$1.98

Record

41%

137-197 (334)

VeryLucky888<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$19

Value

$19

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

glennyorkshire<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

241-270 (511)

SchruteBucks

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$370

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$20.75

Record

29%

210-521 (731)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Niels Peter van Noord

Invested

$3.6

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

506-602 (1108)

LightParadox<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

ameisgoat11<$100

Joshua Charlton

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

878-1159 (2037)

Research grade

NeutralJoshua Charlton at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Joshua Charlton

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joshua Charlton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.