Matsuyama: Rio Noguchi vs Yi Zhou

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Rio Noguchi (52%) · Rio Noguchi at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19

Rio Noguchi86¢Yi Zhou14¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rio Noguchi

Consensus Traders

Rio Noguchi 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$252.29

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 85.5¢

+44% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralRio Noguchi at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rio Noguchi

12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rio Noguchi86%

Yi Zhou14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rio Noguchi12 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,947

Combined PnL+$638.98

Yi Zhou11 traders

Total Value$952.68

Total Shares3,430

Combined PnL-$386.69

Rio Noguchi — 52%Yi Zhou — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Rio Noguchiavg 62.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$400.87	31% 411-924 (1335)
TH thestingsnake	Rio Noguchiavg 77¢	$402.84	$442.81	+$42.97	27% 144-385 (529)
MA MadridTime	Rio Noguchiavg 75.5¢	$268.61	$307.74	+$39.13	31% 412-897 (1309)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Yi Zhouavg 34.3¢	$580.79	$247.3	-$216.74	43% 125-167 (292)
7C 0x7c1e...bab3CTR	Yi Zhouavg 38¢	$273.76	$226.64	-$47.12	—
MO mouzsynapse	Rio Noguchiavg 35¢	$163.6	$168.27	+$4.67	44% 56-70 (126)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yi Zhouavg 38¢	$136.76	$134.96	-$1.8	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA pauleta23	Rio Noguchiavg 62.7¢	$89.98	$122.78	+$32.8	32% 234-496 (730)
LI Limousin	Rio Noguchiavg 48.7¢	$64.59	$114.61	+$50.02	30% 402-921 (1323)
F1 0xf1f2...8c8dCTR	Yi Zhouavg 38.6¢	$113.59	$113.18	-$0.41	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Rio Noguchiavg 66.3¢	$113.65	$105.83	-$7.82	56% 3876-3036 (6912)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 46¢	$82.42	$91.94	+$15.76	31% 412-920 (1332)
FF 0xffb9...390a<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 68.8¢	$82.62	$89.34	+$6.72	—
EU Eulhunter<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 31.6¢	$33.26	$83.52	+$50.26	49% 118-121 (239)
B7 0xb7ab...a2d1<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 29.1¢	$68	$80.73	+$12.73	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yi Zhouavg 44.3¢	$191.67	$58.38	-$133.3	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Yi Zhouavg 11.8¢	$46.19	$55.68	+$34.24	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Rio Noguchi leg	Rio Noguchiavg 42¢	$16.17	$32.92	+$29.95
└ Yi Zhou leg	Yi Zhouavg 11.8¢	$18.47	$22.76	+$4.29
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 43¢	$27.95	$28.28	+$0.32	25% 138-417 (555)
RN1CTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 38¢	$26.45	$26.1	-$0.35	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 64.8¢	$19.45	$25.95	+$6.5	24% 156-503 (659)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 65¢	$16.88	$17.01	+$0.13	52% 497-453 (950)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 36¢	$9.79	$9.92	+$0.14	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
A8 0xa85b...eb0eCTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 35.4¢	$8.85	$5.63	-$3.22	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yi Zhouavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.28	+$0.03	34% 328-634 (962)

Venusian

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$1,098.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$400.87

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

thestingsnake

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$402.84

Value

$442.81

PnL

+$42.97

Record

27%

144-385 (529)

MadridTime

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$268.61

Value

$307.74

PnL

+$39.13

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

thirdt1meCTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$580.79

Value

$247.3

PnL

-$216.74

Record

43%

125-167 (292)

0x7c1e...bab3CTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$273.76

Value

$226.64

PnL

-$47.12

Record

—

mouzsynapse

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$163.6

Value

$168.27

PnL

+$4.67

Record

44%

56-70 (126)

38791873984189CTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$136.76

Value

$134.96

PnL

-$1.8

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

pauleta23

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$89.98

Value

$122.78

PnL

+$32.8

Record

32%

234-496 (730)

Limousin

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$64.59

Value

$114.61

PnL

+$50.02

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

0xf1f2...8c8dCTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$113.59

Value

$113.18

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$113.65

Value

$105.83

PnL

-$7.82

Record

56%

3876-3036 (6912)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$82.42

Value

$91.94

PnL

+$15.76

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

0xffb9...390a<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$82.62

Value

$89.34

PnL

+$6.72

Record

—

Eulhunter<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$33.26

Value

$83.52

PnL

+$50.26

Record

49%

118-121 (239)

0xb7ab...a2d1<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$68

Value

$80.73

PnL

+$12.73

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yi Zhou

Invested

$191.67

Value

$58.38

PnL

-$133.3

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$46.19

Value

$55.68

PnL

+$34.24

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Rio Noguchi$16.1742¢+$29.95

Yi Zhou$18.4711.8¢+$4.29

babybellsCTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$27.95

Value

$28.28

PnL

+$0.32

Record

25%

138-417 (555)

RN1CTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$26.45

Value

$26.1

PnL

-$0.35

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

BillBenter2026<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$19.45

Value

$25.95

PnL

+$6.5

Record

24%

156-503 (659)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$16.88

Value

$17.01

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

Flaznorp<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$9.79

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0xa85b...eb0eCTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$8.85

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$3.22

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yi Zhou

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

NeutralRio Noguchi at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rio Noguchi

12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rio Noguchi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.