Matsuyama: Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Rio Noguchi (56%) · Rio Noguchi at 70¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 16

Rio Noguchi70¢Daniel Michalski30¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rio Noguchi

Consensus Traders

Rio Noguchi 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

-$263.16

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 70¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralRio Noguchi at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rio Noguchi

9 of 16 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rio Noguchi70%

Daniel Michalski30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rio Noguchi9 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares15,343

Combined PnL+$263.28

Daniel Michalski7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares14,101

Combined PnL-$526.44

Rio Noguchi — 56%Daniel Michalski — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Rio Noguchiavg 67.4¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$72.13	51% 3145-3040 (6185)
RN1	Rio Noguchiavg 66¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$35.37	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rio Noguchiavg 68¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$112.44	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Daniel Michalskiavg 33.7¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$308.83	11% 12-93 (105)
VE VenusianCTR	Daniel Michalskiavg 32.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$176.79	24% 190-616 (806)
TH thirdt1me	Rio Noguchiavg 68.4¢	$767.88	$752.96	+$0.75	31% 48-106 (154)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 52¢	$408.33	$412.5	+$4.17	46% 178-207 (385)
└ Rio Noguchi leg	Rio Noguchiavg 52¢	$216.67	$245.83	+$29.17
└ Daniel Michalski leg	Daniel Michalskiavg 46¢	$191.66	$166.66	-$25
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 46¢	$419.46	$394.54	-$24.92	56% 72-57 (129)
└ Daniel Michalski leg	Daniel Michalskiavg 46¢	$307.07	$267.02	-$40.05
└ Rio Noguchi leg	Rio Noguchiavg 52¢	$112.39	$127.52	+$15.13
FL Flaznorp	Rio Noguchiavg 69.1¢	$342.83	$379.44	+$36.61	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Daniel Michalskiavg 30.8¢	$168.4	$163.8	-$4.6	14% 52-322 (374)
BA babybells	Rio Noguchiavg 66.9¢	$152.73	$156.13	+$3.4	14% 57-349 (406)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 66.9¢	$115.06	$115.64	+$0.58	56% 3771-2936 (6707)
└ Rio Noguchi leg	Rio Noguchiavg 66.9¢	$77.29	$81.51	+$4.21
└ Daniel Michalski leg	Daniel Michalskiavg 32.6¢	$37.77	$34.14	-$3.63
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 67.1¢	$179.49	$97.07	-$20.38	48% 644-687 (1331)
└ Rio Noguchi leg	Rio Noguchiavg 67.1¢	$64.29	$67.57	+$3.28
└ Daniel Michalski leg	Daniel Michalskiavg 40¢	$40	$29.5	-$23.66
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 35¢	$86.78	$68.18	-$18.6	24% 184-598 (782)
PA pauleta23<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 70.2¢	$60.86	$61.12	+$0.26	18% 90-404 (494)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 33¢	$41.86	$38.74	-$3.13	52% 45-41 (86)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 41¢	$41	$27.5	-$13.5	23% 185-620 (805)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 53¢	$18.56	$20.66	+$2.1	1% 3-256 (259)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Rio Noguchiavg 69¢	$9.66	$9.87	+$0.21	10% 50-447 (497)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Daniel Michalskiavg 46.7¢	$7	$6	-$1	20% 116-466 (582)

6512395314597884

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$4,330.17

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$72.13

Record

51%

3145-3040 (6185)

RN1

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$2,676.04

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$35.37

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$2,382.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$112.44

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$308.83

Record

11%

12-93 (105)

VenusianCTR

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$1,839.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$176.79

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

thirdt1me

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$767.88

Value

$752.96

PnL

+$0.75

Record

31%

48-106 (154)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$408.33

Value

$412.5

PnL

+$4.17

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

Both legs:

Rio Noguchi$216.6752¢+$29.17

Daniel Michalski$191.6646¢-$25

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$419.46

Value

$394.54

PnL

-$24.92

Record

56%

72-57 (129)

Both legs:

Daniel Michalski$307.0746¢-$40.05

Rio Noguchi$112.3952¢+$15.13

Flaznorp

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$342.83

Value

$379.44

PnL

+$36.61

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

thestingsnakeCTR

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$168.4

Value

$163.8

PnL

-$4.6

Record

14%

52-322 (374)

babybells

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$152.73

Value

$156.13

PnL

+$3.4

Record

14%

57-349 (406)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$115.06

Value

$115.64

PnL

+$0.58

Record

56%

3771-2936 (6707)

Both legs:

Rio Noguchi$77.2966.9¢+$4.21

Daniel Michalski$37.7732.6¢-$3.63

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$179.49

Value

$97.07

PnL

-$20.38

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

Both legs:

Rio Noguchi$64.2967.1¢+$3.28

Daniel Michalski$4040¢-$23.66

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$86.78

Value

$68.18

PnL

-$18.6

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

pauleta23<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$60.86

Value

$61.12

PnL

+$0.26

Record

18%

90-404 (494)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$41.86

Value

$38.74

PnL

-$3.13

Record

52%

45-41 (86)

LimousinCTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

$41

Value

$27.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$18.56

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$2.1

Record

3-256 (259)

BillBenter2026<$100

Rio Noguchi

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.21

Record

10%

50-447 (497)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Daniel Michalski

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

Research grade

NeutralRio Noguchi at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rio Noguchi

9 of 16 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rio Noguchi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.