Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Antoine Ghibaudo (39%) · Antoine Ghibaudo at 71¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 22

Maximilian Neuchrist30¢Antoine Ghibaudo70¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Antoine Ghibaudo

Consensus Traders

Antoine Ghibaudo 39%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$179.36

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 70.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAntoine Ghibaudo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Antoine Ghibaudo

7 of 18 top traders (39%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maximilian Neuchrist30%

Antoine Ghibaudo71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Antoine Ghibaudo7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,516

Combined PnL-$251.71

Maximilian Neuchrist11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,193

Combined PnL+$72.35

Antoine Ghibaudo — 39%Maximilian Neuchrist — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Antoine Ghibaudo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaximilian Neuchrist 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedMaximilian Neuchrist 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maximilian Neuchrist 65% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR prabam	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 71.6¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$185.86	50% 15-15 (30)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$3.6	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Antoine Ghibaudo leg	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 50¢	$502.5	$723.6	+$234.6
└ Maximilian Neuchrist leg	Maximilian Neuchristavg 50¢	$525	$294	-$231
LI LightParadox	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 78.2¢	$502.42	$433.88	-$68.54	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Maximilian Neuchristavg 30.2¢	$273.38	$305.25	+$31.87	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Maximilian Neuchristavg 25.2¢	$215.06	$238.58	+$23.51	48% 373-412 (785)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Maximilian Neuchristavg 27.4¢	$186.3	$190.53	+$4.23	48% 638-680 (1318)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Maximilian Neuchristavg 27¢	$179.01	$185.64	+$6.63	44% 92-117 (209)
38 38791873984189CTR	Maximilian Neuchristavg 28¢	$197.4	$177.9	+$0.5	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 27¢	$216.61	$118.6	+$7.84	46% 116-135 (251)
└ Maximilian Neuchrist leg	Maximilian Neuchristavg 27¢	$66.15	$68.6	+$2.45
└ Antoine Ghibaudo leg	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 70.2¢	$48.73	$50	+$5.39
LI Limousin<$100	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 73.5¢	$89.91	$82.61	-$7.3	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
0xheavy888<$100	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 73¢	$73	$72	-$1	56% 668-530 (1198)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 27¢	$85.25	$70	+$3	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 27¢	$54	$56	+$2	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
PA pauleta23<$100	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 74.9¢	$40	$36.04	-$3.96	43% 564-761 (1325)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 28¢	$33.6	$33.6	+$0	34% 272-524 (796)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 67¢	$72.02	$29.12	+$14.69	36% 256-453 (709)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Antoine Ghibaudoavg 69¢	$6.12	$6.39	+$0.27	53% 220-193 (413)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 28¢	$5.36	$5.36	+$0	34% 476-910 (1386)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 28¢	$2.53	$2.94	+$0.41	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
TRCMCTR<$100	Maximilian Neuchristavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.4	+$0.2	18% 100-459 (559)

prabam

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$3,253.42

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$185.86

Record

50%

15-15 (30)

NotJumpARB<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$3.6

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Antoine Ghibaudo$502.550¢+$234.6

Maximilian Neuchrist$52550¢-$231

LightParadox

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$502.42

Value

$433.88

PnL

-$68.54

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

FlaznorpCTR

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$273.38

Value

$305.25

PnL

+$31.87

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

thirdt1meCTR

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$215.06

Value

$238.58

PnL

+$23.51

Record

48%

373-412 (785)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$186.3

Value

$190.53

PnL

+$4.23

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$179.01

Value

$185.64

PnL

+$6.63

Record

44%

92-117 (209)

38791873984189CTR

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$197.4

Value

$177.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

efntrickARB<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$216.61

Value

$118.6

PnL

+$7.84

Record

46%

116-135 (251)

Both legs:

Maximilian Neuchrist$66.1527¢+$2.45

Antoine Ghibaudo$48.7370.2¢+$5.39

Limousin<$100

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$89.91

Value

$82.61

PnL

-$7.3

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

0xheavy888<$100

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$73

Value

$72

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$85.25

Value

$70

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$54

Value

$56

PnL

+$2

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

pauleta23<$100

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$40

Value

$36.04

PnL

-$3.96

Record

43%

564-761 (1325)

babybellsCTR<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$33.6

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

thestingsnake<$100

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$72.02

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$14.69

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

Eulhunter<$100

Antoine Ghibaudo

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

220-193 (413)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.41

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

TRCMCTR<$100

Maximilian Neuchrist

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

18%

100-459 (559)

Research grade

NeutralAntoine Ghibaudo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Antoine Ghibaudo

7 of 18 top traders (39%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Antoine Ghibaudo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaximilian Neuchrist 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedMaximilian Neuchrist 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maximilian Neuchrist 65% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Antoine Ghibaudo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.