Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Petr Nesterov, while the market favors Timo Legout (62%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Petr Nesterov vs Timo Legout

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Petr Nesterov (41%) · Petr Nesterov at 39¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 17

Petr Nesterov39¢Timo Legout61¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Petr Nesterov

Consensus Traders

Petr Nesterov 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.9K

Combined PnL

$45

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 38.5¢

-28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralPetr Nesterov at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Petr Nesterov

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Timo Legout 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Petr Nesterov39%

Timo Legout62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timo Legout10 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares42,566

Combined PnL+$6.6K

Petr Nesterov7 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares36,935

Combined PnL$-6.6K

Timo Legout — 59%Petr Nesterov — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Petr Nesterov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Petr Nesterov) and the top 1000 (15 on Timo Legout) disagree here.

sharpPetr Nesterov 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPetr Nesterov 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedPetr Nesterov 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Timo Legout 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Timo Legoutavg 46¢	$12.5K	$17.3K	+$4.8K	51% 3162-3066 (6228)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Petr Nesterovavg 50.5¢	$7.0K	$5.1K	$-1.9K	25% 218-637 (855)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Timo Legoutavg 46.1¢	$3.4K	$5.0K	+$1.6K	54% 1629-1388 (3017)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Petr Nesterovavg 54.6¢	$6.8K	$4.3K	$-2.5K	25% 218-645 (863)
LI LimousinCTR	Petr Nesterovavg 59.9¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	$-1.2K	25% 217-656 (873)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Timo Legoutavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$64.08	5% 22-411 (433)
38 38791873984189	Timo Legoutavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$74.3	48% 879-959 (1838)
AC Accomplished-FrameworkCTR	Petr Nesterovavg 54.3¢	$1.4K	$921.1	-$431.04	— 4-3 (7)
FL Flaznorp	Timo Legoutavg 43.8¢	$571.21	$894.13	+$322.91	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
VE VenusianCTR	Petr Nesterovavg 59.6¢	$1.4K	$788.59	-$573.69	25% 216-657 (873)
OJ ojg	Timo Legoutavg 51.6¢	$206.79	$250.63	+$43.84	38% 89-147 (236)
0xheavy888	Timo Legoutavg 74¢	$382.57	$237.82	-$144.76	56% 108-86 (194)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Timo Legoutavg 50.7¢	$215.91	$224.21	+$8.3	56% 3799-2963 (6762)
└ Timo Legout leg	Timo Legoutavg 50.7¢	$130.16	$163.1	+$32.94
└ Petr Nesterov leg	Petr Nesterovavg 51.2¢	$85.74	$61.11	-$24.64
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Petr Nesterovavg 35.5¢	$213	$219	+$6	18% 74-342 (416)
BA babybells	Timo Legoutavg 52.2¢	$154.52	$199.72	+$45.2	18% 80-370 (450)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 55.9¢	$56.03	$37.84	-$18.19	14% 78-462 (540)
VeryLucky888<$100	Timo Legoutavg 73¢	$24.09	$15.18	-$8.91	49% 235-240 (475)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Timo Legoutavg 73¢	$3.65	$2.3	-$1.35	24% 161-506 (667)

6512395314597884

Timo Legout

Invested

$12,485.33

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

51%

3162-3066 (6228)

MadridTimeCTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$6,985.14

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Timo Legout

Invested

$3,421.16

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

1629-1388 (3017)

LightParadoxCTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$6,822.87

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

LimousinCTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$3,089.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Timo Legout

Invested

$1,409.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$64.08

Record

22-411 (433)

38791873984189

Timo Legout

Invested

$1,093.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$74.3

Record

48%

879-959 (1838)

Accomplished-FrameworkCTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$1,352.14

Value

$921.1

PnL

-$431.04

Record

—

4-3 (7)

Flaznorp

Timo Legout

Invested

$571.21

Value

$894.13

PnL

+$322.91

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

VenusianCTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$1,362.28

Value

$788.59

PnL

-$573.69

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

ojg

Timo Legout

Invested

$206.79

Value

$250.63

PnL

+$43.84

Record

38%

89-147 (236)

0xheavy888

Timo Legout

Invested

$382.57

Value

$237.82

PnL

-$144.76

Record

56%

108-86 (194)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$215.91

Value

$224.21

PnL

+$8.3

Record

56%

3799-2963 (6762)

Both legs:

Timo Legout$130.1650.7¢+$32.94

Petr Nesterov$85.7451.2¢-$24.64

thestingsnakeCTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$213

Value

$219

PnL

+$6

Record

18%

74-342 (416)

babybells

Timo Legout

Invested

$154.52

Value

$199.72

PnL

+$45.2

Record

18%

80-370 (450)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$56.03

Value

$37.84

PnL

-$18.19

Record

14%

78-462 (540)

VeryLucky888<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$24.09

Value

$15.18

PnL

-$8.91

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

ameisgoat11<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$3.65

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$1.35

Record

24%

161-506 (667)

Research grade

NeutralPetr Nesterov at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Petr Nesterov

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Timo Legout 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Petr Nesterov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Petr Nesterov) and the top 1000 (15 on Timo Legout) disagree here.

sharpPetr Nesterov 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPetr Nesterov 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedPetr Nesterov 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Timo Legout 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Petr Nesterov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.