Orleans: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Ritschard

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Luca Nardi (58%) · Luca Nardi at 85¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Luca Nardi85¢Alexander Ritschard15¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luca Nardi

Consensus Traders

Luca Nardi 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$281.71

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 84.8¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuca Nardi at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Nardi

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Luca Nardi85%

Alexander Ritschard15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luca Nardi7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,205

Combined PnL-$502.19

Alexander Ritschard5 traders

Total Value$561.71

Total Shares3,268

Combined PnL+$220.48

Luca Nardi — 58%Alexander Ritschard — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Luca Nardiavg 59.7¢	$2.1K	$4.0K	+$1.8K	47% 2286-2587 (4873)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 59.7¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$742.34
└ Alexander Ritschard leg	Alexander Ritschardavg 3.4¢	$278.24	$1.4K	+$1.1K
PA Paul973973	Luca Nardiavg 96.7¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$853.36	89% 1166-147 (1313)
RN1	Luca Nardiavg 70.7¢	$642.7	$760.42	+$117.72	53% 72100-63589 (135689)
TH thirdt1me	Luca Nardiavg 59.1¢	$576.39	$220.78	+$222.07	58% 233-171 (404)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alexander Ritschardavg 20.1¢	$258.27	$197.4	-$60.87	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
dips.CTR	Alexander Ritschardavg 3.2¢	$27.18	$150.3	+$123.12	48% 17828-19546 (37374)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alexander Ritschardavg 3¢	$42.7	$144.08	+$101.38	52% 49624-46573 (96197)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Luca Nardiavg 61.8¢	$97.9	$100.72	+$2.82	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 61.8¢	$55.67	$76.4	+$20.73
└ Alexander Ritschard leg	Alexander Ritschardavg 26.5¢	$42.23	$24.32	-$17.91
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Alexander Ritschardavg 3.2¢	$12.45	$69.03	+$56.58	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
EF efntrick<$100	Luca Nardiavg 54¢	$32.4	$33.3	+$0.9	49% 3737-3961 (7698)
OJ ojg<$100	Luca Nardiavg 92.7¢	$10.32	$10.82	+$0.5	51% 4008-3805 (7813)
MA MadridTime<$100	Luca Nardiavg 61.2¢	$3.06	$2.78	-$0.28	45% 2742-3329 (6071)
SC SchruteBucks	Luca Nardiavg 79.3¢	$209.32	$1.63	+$10.26	56% 1996-1543 (3539)
TRCMCTR<$100	Alexander Ritschardavg 6.3¢	$0.63	$0.9	+$0.27	55% 4140-3334 (7474)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$2,137.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

47%

2286-2587 (4873)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$1,859.5859.7¢+$742.34

Alexander Ritschard$278.243.4¢+$1.1K

Paul973973

Luca Nardi

Invested

$2,003.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$853.36

Record

89%

1166-147 (1313)

RN1

Luca Nardi

Invested

$642.7

Value

$760.42

PnL

+$117.72

Record

53%

72100-63589 (135689)

thirdt1me

Luca Nardi

Invested

$576.39

Value

$220.78

PnL

+$222.07

Record

58%

233-171 (404)

38791873984189CTR

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$258.27

Value

$197.4

PnL

-$60.87

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

dips.CTR

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$27.18

Value

$150.3

PnL

+$123.12

Record

48%

17828-19546 (37374)

FlaznorpCTR

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$42.7

Value

$144.08

PnL

+$101.38

Record

52%

49624-46573 (96197)

EulhunterARB<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$97.9

Value

$100.72

PnL

+$2.82

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$55.6761.8¢+$20.73

Alexander Ritschard$42.2326.5¢-$17.91

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$12.45

Value

$69.03

PnL

+$56.58

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

efntrick<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$32.4

Value

$33.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

3737-3961 (7698)

ojg<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$10.32

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

4008-3805 (7813)

MadridTime<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.28

Record

45%

2742-3329 (6071)

SchruteBucks

Luca Nardi

Invested

$209.32

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$10.26

Record

56%

1996-1543 (3539)

TRCMCTR<$100

Alexander Ritschard

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

4140-3334 (7474)

Research grade

NeutralLuca Nardi at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Nardi

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luca Nardi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.