Champaign: Bryce Nakashima vs Hiroki Sakagawa

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Bryce Nakashima (54%) · Bryce Nakashima at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Bryce Nakashima95¢Hiroki Sakagawa5¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bryce Nakashima

Consensus Traders

Bryce Nakashima 54%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$9.34

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 95¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBryce Nakashima at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bryce Nakashima

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bryce Nakashima95%

Hiroki Sakagawa5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bryce Nakashima7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,190

Combined PnL+$1.74

Hiroki Sakagawa6 traders

Total Value$101.3

Total Shares2,124

Combined PnL+$7.59

Bryce Nakashima — 54%Hiroki Sakagawa — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bryce Nakashima. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hiroki Sakagawa) and the top 1000 (12 on Bryce Nakashima) disagree here.

ctrBryce Nakashima 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHiroki Sakagawa 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bryce Nakashima 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Bryce Nakashimaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
FL Flaznorp	Bryce Nakashimaavg 95.4¢	$939.19	$938.22	-$0.97	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
VE Venusian	Bryce Nakashimaavg 95.5¢	$144.03	$144.89	+$2	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Hiroki Sakagawaavg 4.7¢	$66.22	$59.29	-$6.92	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
RN1CTR<$100	Hiroki Sakagawaavg 4¢	$17.3	$25.52	+$8.22	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
LI LightParadox<$100	Bryce Nakashimaavg 95.8¢	$13.82	$14.81	+$0.99	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bryce Nakashimaavg 95.4¢	$14.33	$14.27	-$0.06	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Hiroki Sakagawaavg 3.3¢	$6.59	$11.78	+$5.19	51% 202-191 (393)
LI Limousin<$100	Bryce Nakashimaavg 95.9¢	$10.03	$9.94	-$0.09	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Bryce Nakashimaavg 96¢	$6.72	$6.59	-$0.13	53% 220-193 (413)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Hiroki Sakagawaavg 4¢	$1.21	$1.8	+$0.59	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Hiroki Sakagawaavg 4.5¢	$1.12	$1.47	+$0.35	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Hiroki Sakagawaavg 5.2¢	$1.27	$1.44	+$0.17	48% 638-680 (1318)

NotJump

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Flaznorp

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$939.19

Value

$938.22

PnL

-$0.97

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Venusian

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$144.03

Value

$144.89

PnL

+$2

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Hiroki Sakagawa

Invested

$66.22

Value

$59.29

PnL

-$6.92

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

RN1CTR<$100

Hiroki Sakagawa

Invested

$17.3

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$8.22

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

LightParadox<$100

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$13.82

Value

$14.81

PnL

+$0.99

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

ferdinand2<$100

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$14.33

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Hiroki Sakagawa

Invested

$6.59

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$5.19

Record

51%

202-191 (393)

Limousin<$100

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$10.03

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.09

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

Eulhunter<$100

Bryce Nakashima

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

220-193 (413)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Hiroki Sakagawa

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Hiroki Sakagawa

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.35

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Hiroki Sakagawa

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

Research grade

NeutralBryce Nakashima at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bryce Nakashima

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bryce Nakashima. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hiroki Sakagawa) and the top 1000 (12 on Bryce Nakashima) disagree here.

ctrBryce Nakashima 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHiroki Sakagawa 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bryce Nakashima 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bryce Nakashima wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.1%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.