Matsuyama: Shunsuke Nakagawa vs David Jorda Sanchis

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold David Jorda Sanchis (100%) · David Jorda Sanchis at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Shunsuke Nakagawa22¢David Jorda Sanchis78¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

David Jorda Sanchis

Consensus Traders

David Jorda Sanchis 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$14.13

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDavid Jorda Sanchis at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

David Jorda Sanchis

6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shunsuke Nakagawa22%

David Jorda Sanchis79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

David Jorda Sanchis6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,145

Combined PnL+$14.13

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on David Jorda Sanchis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedDavid Jorda Sanchis 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000David Jorda Sanchis 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	David Jorda Sanchisavg 77¢	$934.77	$952.98	+$18.21	—
0xheavy888	David Jorda Sanchisavg 79¢	$351.55	$349.33	-$2.23	—
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	David Jorda Sanchisavg 76¢	$239.3	$246.61	+$7.32	—
└ David Jorda Sanchis leg	David Jorda Sanchisavg 76¢	$178.07	$183.95	+$5.86
└ Shunsuke Nakagawa leg	Shunsuke Nakagawaavg 21¢	$61.18	$62.67	+$1.46
VeryLucky888	David Jorda Sanchisavg 78.5¢	$210.75	$206.77	-$3.99	—
PA Pan9X	David Jorda Sanchisavg 77.8¢	$104	$81.64	+$0.68	—
SE sentrio<$100	David Jorda Sanchisavg 77¢	$98.29	$77.16	+$1.47	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	David Jorda Sanchisavg 78.7¢	$11.8	$11.78	-$0.02	—

Flaznorp

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$934.77

Value

$952.98

PnL

+$18.21

Record

—

0xheavy888

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$351.55

Value

$349.33

PnL

-$2.23

Record

—

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$239.3

Value

$246.61

PnL

+$7.32

Record

—

Both legs:

David Jorda Sanchis$178.0776¢+$5.86

Shunsuke Nakagawa$61.1821¢+$1.46

VeryLucky888

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$210.75

Value

$206.77

PnL

-$3.99

Record

—

Pan9X

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$104

Value

$81.64

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

sentrio<$100

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$98.29

Value

$77.16

PnL

+$1.47

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

David Jorda Sanchis

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDavid Jorda Sanchis at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

David Jorda Sanchis

6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on David Jorda Sanchis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedDavid Jorda Sanchis 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000David Jorda Sanchis 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that David Jorda Sanchis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.