Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sebastian Gima, while the market favors Sumit Nagal (84%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Helsinki: Sumit Nagal vs Sebastian Gima

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Gima (75%) · Sebastian Gima at 17¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Sumit Nagal84¢Sebastian Gima16¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sebastian Gima

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Gima 75%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$66.48

Smart Money Entry

16.9¢ → 16.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSebastian Gima at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gima

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Sumit Nagal 84%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sumit Nagal84%

Sebastian Gima17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sumit Nagal3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL-$11.45

Sebastian Gima9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,566

Combined PnL-$55.03

Sumit Nagal — 25%Sebastian Gima — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gima. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSebastian Gima 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gima 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gima 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Sumit Nagalavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
RN1CTR	Sebastian Gimaavg 17¢	$854.59	$804.32	-$50.27	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
0xheavy888<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 84¢	$84	$83	-$1	56% 663-529 (1192)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 16¢	$58.25	$60.07	+$1.82	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 16¢	$44.8	$46.2	+$1.4	48% 469-508 (977)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 17¢	$44.54	$41.92	-$2.62	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 17¢	$42.5	$40	-$2.5	45% 111-135 (246)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 16¢	$38.4	$38.4	+$0	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 18¢	$18	$16	-$2	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 18¢	$6.84	$6.08	-$0.76	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.15	+$0.05	43% 851-1135 (1986)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sebastian Gimaavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.8	-$0.1	37% 1333-2226 (3559)

NotJump

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

RN1CTR

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$854.59

Value

$804.32

PnL

-$50.27

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

0xheavy888<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$84

Value

$83

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$58.25

Value

$60.07

PnL

+$1.82

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$44.8

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$44.54

Value

$41.92

PnL

-$2.62

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

efntrickCTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$42.5

Value

$40

PnL

-$2.5

Record

45%

111-135 (246)

VenusianCTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$38.4

Value

$38.4

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$18

Value

$16

PnL

-$2

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.76

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Sebastian Gima

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

Research grade

AvoidSebastian Gima at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gima

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Sumit Nagal 84%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gima. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSebastian Gima 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gima 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gima 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Gima wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.