Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ugo Humbert, while the market favors Lorenzo Musetti (66%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Humbert (67%) · Ugo Humbert at 35¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Ugo Humbert
6
Ugo Humbert 67%
$2.7K
$59.82
33.1¢ → 34.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUgo Humbert at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lorenzo Musetti 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Ugo Humbertavg 32.4¢ | $865.94 | $948.44 | +$82.49 | 6% 12-205 (217) |
FL Flaznorp | Lorenzo Musettiavg 67.3¢ | $958.98 | $918.58 | -$40.4 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Ugo Humbertavg 34¢ | $341.48 | $356.54 | +$15.07 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
SE sentrio | Lorenzo Musettiavg 67.8¢ | $194.98 | $185.57 | -$9.41 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
NM NM-PCTR | Ugo Humbertavg 34¢ | $136.85 | $142.88 | +$6.04 | 59% 3517-2395 (5912) |
GC GC-PCTR | Ugo Humbertavg 34¢ | $136.84 | $142.88 | +$6.04 | 25% 136-410 (546) |
Invested
$865.94
Value
$948.44
PnL
+$82.49
Record
6%
12-205 (217)
Invested
$958.98
Value
$918.58
PnL
-$40.4
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$341.48
Value
$356.54
PnL
+$15.07
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$194.98
Value
$185.57
PnL
-$9.41
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$136.85
Value
$142.88
PnL
+$6.04
Record
59%
3517-2395 (5912)
Invested
$136.84
Value
$142.88
PnL
+$6.04
Record
25%
136-410 (546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.