Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thomas Faurel, while the market favors Maxim Mrva (52%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Taranto: Maxim Mrva vs Thomas Faurel

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Thomas Faurel (64%) · Thomas Faurel at 48¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 12

Maxim Mrva52¢Thomas Faurel48¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Thomas Faurel

Consensus Traders

Thomas Faurel 64%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$302.43

Smart Money Entry

32.9¢ → 48¢

+46% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralThomas Faurel at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Faurel

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Maxim Mrva 52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maxim Mrva52%

Thomas Faurel48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxim Mrva8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,706

Combined PnL+$316.42

Thomas Faurel14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares16,008

Combined PnL-$13.99

Maxim Mrva — 36%Thomas Faurel — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 71.3¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$341.39	51% 4753-4623 (9376)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 71.3¢	$3.3K	$2.4K	-$919.74
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 35.2¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$578.35
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 53.6¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	+$914.63	50% 21143-21403 (42546)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 53.6¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$43.79
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 17¢	$536.51	$1.5K	+$958.43
FL Flaznorp	Maxim Mrvaavg 66.4¢	$2.9K	$3.5K	+$554.89	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 76.2¢	$3.9K	$3.4K	-$468.17	50% 1305-1289 (2594)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 76.2¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$672.07
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 32.3¢	$802.98	$1.0K	+$203.9
RN1ARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 64.8¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$339.02	53% 61333-53649 (114982)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 64.8¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$349.74
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 48¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.73
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 60.1¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	-$240.37	48% 61013-65836 (126849)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 60.1¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$241.65
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 36.3¢	$355.31	$465.11	+$1.28
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 66.1¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$235.36	52% 1360-1276 (2636)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 66.1¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$247.87
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 42.4¢	$467.93	$480.45	+$12.51
YE yesmateCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 36.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$131.88	53% 379-338 (717)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Thomas Faurelavg 23¢	$847.99	$795.97	-$52.01	42% 7984-11171 (19155)
VE VenusianCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 44.2¢	$742.04	$682.45	-$59.59	51% 1367-1324 (2691)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 16.7¢	$292.79	$579.54	+$286.75	46% 1526-1800 (3326)
TH thestingsnake	Maxim Mrvaavg 73.5¢	$664.73	$427.51	-$176.57	60% 4422-2963 (7385)
1L 1lovejump	Maxim Mrvaavg 65.2¢	$758.56	$408.25	-$62.54	52% 771-698 (1469)
12xmrboltCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 37.2¢	$335.4	$320.49	-$14.91	44% 260-333 (593)
SE sentrioCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 48¢	$309.39	$312.62	+$3.22	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Thomas Faurelavg 45.2¢	$308.4	$289.77	-$18.63	54% 3462-2999 (6461)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Thomas Faurelavg 44.5¢	$245.05	$261.36	+$16.31	59% 32932-23116 (56048)
VeryLucky888CTR	Thomas Faurelavg 35¢	$240.11	$226.39	-$13.72	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
LI LimousinCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 47.3¢	$179.57	$172.59	-$6.98	53% 1404-1252 (2656)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 55.6¢	$74.58	$71.01	-$3.57	52% 14474-13172 (27646)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 55.6¢	$51.65	$47.84	-$3.81
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 48¢	$22.93	$23.17	+$0.24
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 67.5¢	$48.86	$41.99	-$6.87	57% 19322-14302 (33624)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 34¢	$46	$27	-$19	47% 11679-13371 (25050)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 29¢	$21.85	$22.22	+$0.37	51% 6329-6117 (12446)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 16.4¢	$21.96	$18.09	-$3.87	54% 6264-5328 (11592)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 62.6¢	$18.01	$16.45	-$1.57	65% 5260-2878 (8138)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$4,839.22

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$341.39

Record

51%

4753-4623 (9376)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$3,315.8471.3¢-$919.74

Thomas Faurel$1,523.3835.2¢+$578.35

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,758.69

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$914.63

Record

50%

21143-21403 (42546)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$2,222.1853.6¢-$43.79

Thomas Faurel$536.5117¢+$958.43

Flaznorp

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,947.62

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$554.89

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$3,868.73

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$468.17

Record

50%

1305-1289 (2594)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$3,065.7576.2¢-$672.07

Thomas Faurel$802.9832.3¢+$203.9

RN1ARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,732.29

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$339.02

Record

53%

61333-53649 (114982)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$1,702.5464.8¢-$349.74

Thomas Faurel$1,029.7548¢+$10.73

38791873984189ARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,743.66

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$240.37

Record

48%

61013-65836 (126849)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$1,777.1660.1¢-$241.65

Thomas Faurel$355.3136.3¢+$1.28

LightParadoxARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,168.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$235.36

Record

52%

1360-1276 (2636)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$1,701.0366.1¢-$247.87

Thomas Faurel$467.9342.4¢+$12.51

yesmateCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$1,806.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$131.88

Record

53%

379-338 (717)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$847.99

Value

$795.97

PnL

-$52.01

Record

42%

7984-11171 (19155)

VenusianCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$742.04

Value

$682.45

PnL

-$59.59

Record

51%

1367-1324 (2691)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$292.79

Value

$579.54

PnL

+$286.75

Record

46%

1526-1800 (3326)

thestingsnake

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$664.73

Value

$427.51

PnL

-$176.57

Record

60%

4422-2963 (7385)

1lovejump

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$758.56

Value

$408.25

PnL

-$62.54

Record

52%

771-698 (1469)

12xmrboltCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$335.4

Value

$320.49

PnL

-$14.91

Record

44%

260-333 (593)

sentrioCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$309.39

Value

$312.62

PnL

+$3.22

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$308.4

Value

$289.77

PnL

-$18.63

Record

54%

3462-2999 (6461)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$245.05

Value

$261.36

PnL

+$16.31

Record

59%

32932-23116 (56048)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$240.11

Value

$226.39

PnL

-$13.72

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

LimousinCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$179.57

Value

$172.59

PnL

-$6.98

Record

53%

1404-1252 (2656)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$74.58

Value

$71.01

PnL

-$3.57

Record

52%

14474-13172 (27646)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$51.6555.6¢-$3.81

Thomas Faurel$22.9348¢+$0.24

BillBenter2026<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$48.86

Value

$41.99

PnL

-$6.87

Record

57%

19322-14302 (33624)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$46

Value

$27

PnL

-$19

Record

47%

11679-13371 (25050)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$21.85

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

6329-6117 (12446)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$21.96

Value

$18.09

PnL

-$3.87

Record

54%

6264-5328 (11592)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$18.01

Value

$16.45

PnL

-$1.57

Record

65%

5260-2878 (8138)

Research grade

NeutralThomas Faurel at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Faurel

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Maxim Mrva 52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thomas Faurel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.