Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Shunsuke Mitsui, while the market favors William Mroz (54%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Champaign: William Mroz vs Shunsuke Mitsui

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Shunsuke Mitsui (64%) · Shunsuke Mitsui at 46¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

William Mroz54¢Shunsuke Mitsui46¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Shunsuke Mitsui

Consensus Traders

Shunsuke Mitsui 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$629.68

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 46¢

-34% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralShunsuke Mitsui at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shunsuke Mitsui

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors William Mroz 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

William Mroz54%

Shunsuke Mitsui46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shunsuke Mitsui9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,190

Combined PnL-$752.01

William Mroz5 traders

Total Value$557.95

Total Shares1,039

Combined PnL+$122.33

Shunsuke Mitsui — 64%William Mroz — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Shunsuke Mitsui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on William Mroz) and the top 1000 (10 on Shunsuke Mitsui) disagree here.

ctrShunsuke Mitsui 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWilliam Mroz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shunsuke Mitsui 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1meCTR	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 69.5¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$492.7	48% 373-412 (785)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	William Mrozavg 50¢	$1.1K	$871.5	-$178.5	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 50¢	$525	$609	+$84
└ William Mroz leg	William Mrozavg 50¢	$525	$262.5	-$262.5
38 38791873984189CTR	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 70.1¢	$1.0K	$850.28	-$177.96	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
CA CandleHammerDrums	William Mrozavg 33.7¢	$301.97	$263.51	+$98.44	48% 638-680 (1318)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	William Mrozavg 53¢	$237.97	$255.93	+$17.96	32% 15-32 (47)
BA babybellsCTR	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 66.3¢	$134.23	$95.14	-$39.09	34% 272-524 (796)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 63¢	$87.66	$80.7	-$6.96	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 73¢	$73	$58	-$15	46% 479-565 (1044)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 82¢	$50	$35.36	-$14.63	47% 226-251 (477)
FL Flaznorp<$100	William Mrozavg 53¢	$22.55	$22.77	+$0.21	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 74¢	$22.2	$17.4	-$4.8	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
TH thestingsnake<$100	William Mrozavg 25¢	$6.25	$10.5	+$4.25	36% 256-453 (709)
VeryLucky888<$100	William Mrozavg 18¢	$3.77	$5.24	+$1.47	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 62¢	$5.6	$5.24	-$0.36	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 68¢	$3.45	$2.94	-$0.51	38% 1348-2243 (3591)

thirdt1meCTR

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$1,530.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$492.7

Record

48%

373-412 (785)

NotJumpARB<$100

William Mroz

Invested

$1,050

Value

$871.5

PnL

-$178.5

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Shunsuke Mitsui$52550¢+$84

William Mroz$52550¢-$262.5

38791873984189CTR

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$1,028.24

Value

$850.28

PnL

-$177.96

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

CandleHammerDrums

William Mroz

Invested

$301.97

Value

$263.51

PnL

+$98.44

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

William Mroz

Invested

$237.97

Value

$255.93

PnL

+$17.96

Record

32%

15-32 (47)

babybellsCTR

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$134.23

Value

$95.14

PnL

-$39.09

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$87.66

Value

$80.7

PnL

-$6.96

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$73

Value

$58

PnL

-$15

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$50

Value

$35.36

PnL

-$14.63

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

Flaznorp<$100

William Mroz

Invested

$22.55

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

LimousinCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$22.2

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$4.8

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

thestingsnake<$100

William Mroz

Invested

$6.25

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$4.25

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

VeryLucky888<$100

William Mroz

Invested

$3.77

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$1.47

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

VenusianCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$0.36

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$0.51

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

Research grade

NeutralShunsuke Mitsui at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Shunsuke Mitsui

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors William Mroz 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Shunsuke Mitsui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on William Mroz) and the top 1000 (10 on Shunsuke Mitsui) disagree here.

ctrShunsuke Mitsui 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWilliam Mroz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shunsuke Mitsui 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shunsuke Mitsui wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.