Sydney: Hiroki Moriya vs Sam Ryan Ziegann

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Hiroki Moriya (57%) · Hiroki Moriya at 94¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 21

Hiroki Moriya94¢Sam Ryan Ziegann6¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hiroki Moriya

Consensus Traders

Hiroki Moriya 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$401.82

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 93.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHiroki Moriya at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hiroki Moriya94%

Sam Ryan Ziegann7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hiroki Moriya8 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,787

Combined PnL+$586.01

Sam Ryan Ziegann6 traders

Total Value$810.02

Total Shares7,526

Combined PnL-$184.19

Hiroki Moriya — 57%Sam Ryan Ziegann — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Hiroki Moriyaavg 87¢	$7.7K	$8.3K	+$570.23	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 13¢	$900.14	$727.41	-$172.73	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 46¢	$1.1K	$634.92	+$3.15	51% 917-874 (1791)
└ Hiroki Moriya leg	Hiroki Moriyaavg 50¢	$275	$475.75	+$385.75
└ Sam Ryan Ziegann leg	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 46¢	$541.77	$159.17	-$382.6
VE Venusian	Hiroki Moriyaavg 93.9¢	$385.79	$383.99	-$1.8	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 90.9¢	$282.91	$242.47	-$40.44	48% 547-581 (1128)
└ Hiroki Moriya leg	Hiroki Moriyaavg 90.9¢	$163.18	$164.19	+$1
└ Sam Ryan Ziegann leg	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 13¢	$119.73	$78.29	-$41.44
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Hiroki Moriyaavg 86.6¢	$221.93	$226.53	+$4.6	56% 4083-3191 (7274)
BA babybells	Hiroki Moriyaavg 87¢	$200	$188.62	+$11.38	31% 219-484 (703)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 9.7¢	$53.36	$42.3	-$11.06	48% 294-314 (608)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 79¢	$32.81	$36.76	+$3.95	62% 227-140 (367)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 21¢	$33.68	$34.48	+$0.8	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 91¢	$26.39	$24.79	-$1.6	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 89¢	$22.25	$22.13	-$0.13	52% 198-180 (378)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 81¢	$20	$19.38	-$0.62	45% 177-217 (394)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 24¢	$5.58	$5	-$0.58	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 21¢	$0.42	$0.43	+$0.01	45% 405-503 (908)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Sam Ryan Ziegannavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.39	-$0.63	48% 2245-2407 (4652)

MadridTime

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$7,736.03

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$570.23

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$900.14

Value

$727.41

PnL

-$172.73

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

NotJumpARB<$100

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$1,066.77

Value

$634.92

PnL

+$3.15

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Both legs:

Hiroki Moriya$27550¢+$385.75

Sam Ryan Ziegann$541.7746¢-$382.6

Venusian

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$385.79

Value

$383.99

PnL

-$1.8

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$282.91

Value

$242.47

PnL

-$40.44

Record

48%

547-581 (1128)

Both legs:

Hiroki Moriya$163.1890.9¢+$1

Sam Ryan Ziegann$119.7313¢-$41.44

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$221.93

Value

$226.53

PnL

+$4.6

Record

56%

4083-3191 (7274)

babybells

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$200

Value

$188.62

PnL

+$11.38

Record

31%

219-484 (703)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$53.36

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$11.06

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

thatsabing0<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$32.81

Value

$36.76

PnL

+$3.95

Record

62%

227-140 (367)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$33.68

Value

$34.48

PnL

+$0.8

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Flaznorp<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$26.39

Value

$24.79

PnL

-$1.6

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Eulhunter<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$22.25

Value

$22.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

198-180 (378)

glennyorkshire<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$20

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$0.62

Record

45%

177-217 (394)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$5.58

Value

PnL

-$0.58

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

405-503 (908)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.63

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

Research grade

NeutralHiroki Moriya at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hiroki Moriya wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.